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World War III has already started

Yeah, I think Russian conscript army will not be down with the idea of taking on NATO. The fact that Russia helped bolster their membership should be nice and humiliating for Putin.
 
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alexd

Administrator
Staff member
I can't help but wonder how people felt as World War 2 was about to happen. In the hindsight of history, it all looks so linear - this happened, then that happened, etc. But I think the mood or vibe abound the globe was probably just like now: everyone a bit scared as a lunatic tries to take over countries in Europe, but a naive hopefullness it won't progress too far. We know how that ended.
We are already in a world war. The "axis" and "allies" camps are already coalescing. This will be a hard winter.
 

praktik

TRIBE Member
I can't help but wonder how people felt as World War 2 was about to happen. In the hindsight of history, it all looks so linear - this happened, then that happened, etc. But I think the mood or vibe abound the globe was probably just like now: everyone a bit scared as a lunatic tries to take over countries in Europe, but a naive hopefullness it won't progress too far. We know how that ended.
We are already in a world war. The "axis" and "allies" camps are already coalescing. This will be a hard winter.
I'm just amazed at how effectively Russian propaganda has convinced a decent % of the western population that a *russian war of aggression/imperialism*, to add sea access, resources and control over another country's population to the Greater Glory of Russia and Putin, is everyone's fault (USA, NATO) but Putin's/Russia's.

Poor Russia!! Everyone FORCED them to start an aggressive war of choice on their neighbours!!
 
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alexd

Administrator
Staff member
The pipeline sabotage takes everything to another level. Telecom cables will be next and if they are caught doing it or if there is clear proof the EU will probably declare war. Their gas supply has been switched off for the winter. I think, and this is me just speculating, that as the stakes ratchet up higher each day this will become a full European war by February, with reciprocal troop deployments from the European side.

The only solution I see is if somebody inside Russia deposes him, but then that is another unknown.
 

praktik

TRIBE Member

Russia's Illegal Land Grab​

The Russian invasion has been an exercise in hubristic, self-destructive overreach of a sort that we have rarely seen in the postwar era.​

Daniel Larison

Putin has illegally annexed four more regions of Ukraine:
Russian President Vladimir Putin proclaimed the biggest annexation of territory in postwar Europe on Friday, claiming a nuclear-backed yet shaky control over swaths of Ukraine even as his forces were on the verge of another significant battlefield setback.
These annexations are outright theft of Ukrainian territory, and the bogus votes that preceded them were obviously rigged to provide some minimal political cover for this land grab. The danger is that Putin now claims these territories as part of Russia and has said he will treat attacks in these areas as if they were attacks on Russian territory. Because he has claimed them as part of Russia, it will also be much more difficult politically for the Russian government to cede them back as part of any settlement. The Ukrainian government obviously cannot accept the permanent loss of so much of its territory, especially when its forces have been having success in recent weeks, and it is bound to ignore the Russian demand to cease all military action.

Russia’s illegal annexations appear to be a move born of desperation as Putin seeks to “lock in” the gains made earlier in the year by laying claim to occupied territories, and it suggests that he would respond to further reverses in the war with more escalation. The obvious worry is that this escalation could include the use of nuclear weapons in an attempt to offset conventional weakness and battlefield losses. Setting off any nuclear weapon would be a terrifying and criminal act, but it seems unlikely by itself to change the course of the war. It would be a self-defeating act by Russia since it would alienate almost all other nations and make it a true pariah in many parts of the world, so we have to hope that Putin and other top officials realize how useless it would be before it is too late.

To the extent that Putin has convinced himself that the war is an existential one for Russia, we have to take the possibility of nuclear use very seriously. If that should happen, the U.S. should not respond with any direct attacks on Russian forces, since that would only lead to a widening of the war and the increased likelihood of additional uses of nuclear weapons. The priority for the U.S. and its allies still has to be to keep the war contained and to prevent it from spreading to include the rest of Europe and North America. Direct intervention in the war is an unacceptable option.

The illegal annexations make the situation much more unstable than before, as the Russian government has put down a marker saying that it will defend these territories and never let them go.
The Ukrainian government cannot tolerate that, and neither would any other self-respecting government. The U.S. and its allies will never recognize these territorial claims, so there is no realistic chance of any negotiated settlement that allows Russia to keep them. If Moscow imagines that this is their way out of a war by seizing land and declaring victory, their leadership has badly miscalculated once again. The annexations have made a negotiated compromise to halt the fighting extremely difficult, and in the absence of such a compromise the war will grind on for at least another year and probably much longer than that.

The Russian invasion has been an exercise in hubristic, self-destructive overreach of a sort that we have rarely seen in the postwar era. The costs to Russia have been massive, and any benefits that it might get from a few new territories will never be worth the losses they have already suffered. The invasion has been a colossal blunder as well as a massive crime, and the Russian government would be wise to cut its losses and withdraw back to their pre-February 24 lines. Unfortunately, the Russian government seems to have completely bought into its own propaganda and won’t admit that their war has been a costly failure
 
So how much longer do you think Putin's gonna live? There's no way he's walking away from all of this - the only way he's gonna leave office is on a gurney, in a body bag.

Think he'll get a polonium 20 cocktail before the year's out? Or do we think they'll go with the traditional Lenin exit?
 
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Bernnie Federko

TRIBE Member
So how much longer do you think Putin's gonna live? There's no way he's walking away from all of this - the only way he's gonna leave office is on a gurney, in a body bag.

Think he'll get a polonium 20 cocktail before the year's out? Or do we think they'll go with the traditional Lenin exit?

What are you talking about, kommrade? Everything is going according to plan. This is great, we wanted to give Crimea back to Ukraine.
 

alexd

Administrator
Staff member
I don't watch TV news, but I bet they are egging putin on to go nuclear.

Germany has just reported rail network sabotage, and the crimea bridge was taken out by a truck bomb. My prediction here is that it will really suck to live in Europe this winter. Both sides are in the process of re-framing 'terrorism' into 'resistance' and guerilla warfare.
 

alexd

Administrator
Staff member
I predict there will be ground troop deployments in Europe along the Russia/EU border by February to match any Russian mobilization.

This seems to be following a trajectory loosely similar to WWII, where Europe has to engage now because of their proximity, but N. America, now playing a supportive logistics role, will get fully engaged when Russia or tangetal ally, mistakenly (or on purpose) strikes a significant American asset (a Pearl Harbor type event), sinks a US navy vessel, or an aircraft, it the homeland itself to draw America into the war.

I think Russia will have to deal with internal bridge-type events against the Putin government carried out by disgruntled Russians, which will likely get blamed on the Ukrainians and confuse matters. What none of the media or analysts are talking about is how the truck bomb got into Russia. I imagine it was likely built right there by Russian resistance or guerilla fighters, or perhaps by the Ukrainian Secret service as Russia describes. It shows a potential direction where this could go.

One thing is for certain: the Ukrainians will never stop, even if their country is turned to rubble. Russia will have to deal with a legacy of Ukrainian resistance fighters now in Russia for decades or centuries. The more they try to suppress the Ukrainians, the more the chances are of Russian infrastructure being targeted from inside Russia.

There is also a hardening happening in Russia, where people of a country support even crappy leaders if the country is under attack. Sure people are leaving, but the ones that stay are even more per-disposed to maintaining a status quo, even as it diminishes into breadlines.
 
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alexd

Administrator
Staff member
The gloves are off now. This statement just now:

Russian forces will be 'annihilated' if Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine, says Borrell​

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell warned Moscow today that its forces would be “annihilated” by the west’s military response if president Vladimir Putin uses nuclear weapons against Ukraine, AFP reports.
 

praktik

TRIBE Member
How many of y'all have Putin pole-smokers on your friend's list? Seeing a few in the feed talking about how the massive Russian strikes on civilian targets/infrastructure ("retaliation" for the bridge attack) were being mis-reported in the "MSM" and "real media" was talking about how Putin was *really targeting* Ukrainian intelligence when he hit all those apartment bombings.... or something...

Really grinds my gears - real fucking atrocities are being laughed away as anti-russian agitprop by like, people walking around in a free country, breathing free, voting every now and then - and never having to dodge a missile or a landmine in their lives.

Where the fuck is the empathy
 
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