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World War III has already started

alexd

alexd

Administrator
Staff member
praktik said:
Going from bad to worse.

Will be a grim few weeks ahead :(
Click to expand...
Years ahead. Years.

I am thinking they will take Ukraine by the end of March and then the Ukrainians will begin a guerilla insurgency that will last decades. It will be a low level war that will last decades. Assuming the war doesn't fully spiral out of control into a global conflagration.

I grew up hiding under desks in my elementary school in Montreal from nuclear war. This has a worse feeling.
 
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alexd

alexd

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Staff member
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el presidente Highsteppa

el presidente Highsteppa

TRIBE Member
China is a bit upset over the invasion - they were onside at first, but are not trying to get some 6,000 Chinese citiizens out of the Ukraine and are asking Ukraine for assistance. They're citing the lack of co operation from the Russian government to get them out. They're also not comfortable with being seated with countries like Syria and North Korea, who are supportive of the Russian invasion.

If China is getting uncomfortable, I'm relieved, it makes things tougher for Russia, knowing that they're likely going to be increasingly isolated on this.
 
praktik

praktik

TRIBE Member
275939087_291179559814414_6887111317131835749_n.jpg
 
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Bernnie Federko

Bernnie Federko

TRIBE Member
Zelensky's shame-on-you tour

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky will call out the U.S. today when he addresses Congress virtually at 9 a.m. — as he did yesterday with the Canadian parliament, and as he has done around the world.

The big picture: Three weeks into Russia's invasion, Zelensky has invoked Winston Churchill, Hamlet, Canadian cultural landmarks and his own demise as he's made deeply emotional appeals to Western leaders and lawmakers, Axios' Zachary Basu writes.
In Ottawa on Tuesday, Zelensky made it first-name personal as he asked Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and lawmakers for help enacting a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

"Justin, can you imagine you and your children hearing all these severe explosions, the bombing of the airport, the bombing of the Ottawa airport?" Zelensky asked.
In London last week, Ukraine's wartime leader channeled Churchill as he told the U.K. parliament: "We will not give up, and we will not lose ... We will fight in the forests, in the fields, on the shores, in the streets."

In Brussels on Day 1, Zelensky helped secure an unprecedented sanctions package at record speed when he told EU leaders: "This might be the last time you see me alive."
Between the lines: Zelensky's wish list to Congress includes armed drones, communications jamming equipment, long-range, anti-ship missiles and high-tech air-defense systems, the N.Y. Times reports (subscription).

Biden wants to avoid playing catch-up: He plans to announce $1 billion+ in new military aid to Ukraine today, including anti-armor and anti-air systems, The Wall Street Journal reports (subscription).

What's next: Zelensky's next stop could be Spain's Congress of Deputies. He's been invited for a virtual address.
 
ndrwrld

ndrwrld

TRIBE Member
"As everyone understands, this horrific disaster ( Ukraine ) would never have happened if our election was not rigged and if I was the president ".
Trump.

What a fuck stick.
 
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alexd

alexd

Administrator
Staff member
The ISW analysis this morning is interesting:


Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19​

Mar 19, 2022 - Press ISW

Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war. That campaign aimed to conduct airborne and mechanized operations to seize Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and other major Ukrainian cities to force a change of government in Ukraine. That campaign has culminated. Russian forces continue to make limited advances in some parts of the theater but are very unlikely to be able to seize their objectives in this way. The doctrinally sound Russian response to this situation would be to end this campaign, accept a possibly lengthy operational pause, develop the plan for a new campaign, build up resources for that new campaign, and launch it when the resources and other conditions are ready. The Russian military has not yet adopted this approach. It is instead continuing to feed small collections of reinforcements into an ongoing effort to keep the current campaign alive. We assess that that effort will fail.

Institute for the Study of War

www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org
 
Bernnie Federko

Bernnie Federko

TRIBE Member
A bit more on the subject posted above by Alex D

...

Researchers: War hits stalemate

"The war in Ukraine has reached a stalemate after more than three weeks of fighting, with Russia making only marginal gains and increasingly targeting civilians," the N.Y. Times writes (subscription).

That was the assessment yesterday from the Institute for the Study of War, a widely respected D.C. research group:

"Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war," the note says. "That campaign aimed to conduct airborne and mechanized operations to seize Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, and other major Ukrainian cities to force a change of government in Ukraine." That failed.
"Russian forces continue to make limited advances in some parts of the theater but are very unlikely to be able to seize their objectives in this way."

Reality check: "Stalemate will likely be very violent and bloody," the institute adds.

"Stalemate is not armistice or ceasefire. ... If the war in Ukraine settles into a stalemate condition Russian forces will continue to bomb and bombard Ukrainian cities, devastating them and killing civilians."
"The World War I battles of the Somme, Verdun, and Passchendaele were all fought in conditions of stalemate and did not break the stalemate."
What happened: Yaroslav Hrytsak, a Ukrainian historian and professor at Ukrainian Catholic University, writes in a N.Y. Times op-ed (subscription) that Putin made two huge miscalculations:

"First, he was hoping that, as had been the case with his war against Georgia, the West would tacitly swallow his aggression against Ukraine. A unified response from the West was not something he expected."
"Second, since in his mind Russians and Ukrainians were one nation, Mr. Putin believed Russian troops needed barely to enter Ukraine to be welcomed with flowers. This never materialized."
 
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