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World oil and gas 'running out'

Boss Hog

TRIBE Member
World oil and gas 'running out'
By CNN's Graham Jones
Thursday, October 2, 2003 Posted: 1245 GMT ( 8:45 PM HKT)


LONDON, England -- Global warming will never bring a "doomsday scenario" a team of scientists says -- because oil and gas are running out much faster than thought.

The world's oil reserves are up to 80 percent less than predicted, a team from Sweden's University of Uppsala says. Production levels will peak in about 10 years' time, they say.

"Non-fossil fuels must come in much stronger than it had been hoped," Professor Kjell Alekett told CNN.

Oil production levels will hit their maximum soon after 2010 with gas supplies peaking not long afterwards, the Swedish geologists say.

At that point prices for petrol and other fuels will reach disastrous levels. Earlier studies have predicted oil supplies will not start falling until 2050.

Alekett said that his team had examined data on oil and gas reserves from all over the world and we were "facing a very critical situation globally."

"The thing we are surprised of is that people in general are not aware of the decline in supplies and the extent to which it will affect production.

"The decline of oil and gas will affect the world population more than climate change."

According to the Uppsala team, nightmare predictions of melting ice caps and searing temperatures will never come to pass because the reserves of oil and gas just are not big enough to create that much carbon dioxide (CO2).

Alekett said that as well as there being inflated estimates, some countries in the Middle East had exaggerated the amount of reserves they had.

Coal-burning could easily make up the shortfall. But burning coal would be even worse for the planet, as it would create even more CO2, he said.

Predictions of global meltdown by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sparked the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, an agreement obliging signatory nations to cut CO2 emissions.

The IPCC examined a range of future scenarios, from profligate burning of fossil-fuels to a fast transition towards greener energy sources.

The Uppsala team say the amount of oil and gas left is the equivalent of around 3,500 billion barrels of oil -- the IPCC say between 5,000 and 18,000 billion barrels.

Alekett said his team had now established what they called the "Uppsala Protocol" to initiate discussion on how the problems of declining reserves could be tackled -- protecting the world economy but also addressing the problem of climate change.

The conclusions of the Uppsala team were revealed in the magazine New Scientist Thursday, and Nebojsa Nakicenovic, of the University of Vienna who headed the IPCC team said it was standing by its figures.

He said they had factored in a much broader and internationally accepted range of oil and gas estimates then the "conservative" Swedes.

A conference in Russia this week heard a warning that global warming kills about 160,000 people through its effects every year. The numbers dying from "side-effects" of climate change, such as malaria and malnutrition, could almost double by 2020, the climate change conference in Moscow was told.

"We estimate that climate change may already be causing in the region of 160,000 deaths... a year," Andrew Haines of the UK's London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine said. ( Full story )

Most deaths would be in developing nations in Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia, says Haines. These regions would be worst hit by the spread of malnutrition, diarrhea and malaria as a result of warmer temperatures, droughts and floods.

http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/global.warming/index.html
 

OTIS

TRIBE Member
Mike Ruppert has been saying this for years, the world aggregate oil supply has been heavily over-esitmated. He makes the argument that there is no way an alternative energy will get ramped up fast enough to ever replace oil. Because alternative energies have been suppressed by car & oil companies for years, there is a shortfall of development into these. He aslo goes on to say that oil is required in much more than driving your SUV around, everything from plastic to pesticides will become insanely expensive and we'll see a level of poverty and war we havent seen in our lifetime as the countries that control the supply will be in control.

He paints quite a dreary and detailed picture of what the world will begin to look like once oil supply begins to rapidly drop.
 

Ditto Much

TRIBE Member
The plastics and chemicals issue is the one that alwats gets me. We lose track of how many places we use oil products in without even realizing it. Picture a hospital without plastic, picture sporting equipment without plastic, picture all the DVD's and CD's that we use every day.
 

Boss Hog

TRIBE Member
it's not really politics anyway. What happens to the resources and how they're acquired is the political part.
 

silver1

TRIBE Member
Originally posted by OTIS
this deserves general forum attention.
but give it a non-politics forum-y title.
Change the topic name to, "Future of the DVD's in jeopardy".

James will be all over it in a second ;)
 

Subsonic Chronic

TRIBE Member
And people were wondering why GW Bush was so eager to get his hands on Iraq's oil when we were supposed to have enough to last us another 50 years.

Oh sorry... the war wasn't about oil, it was about securing our nation from weapons of mass destruction. :rolleyes:
 

AdRiaN

TRIBE Member
Coal-burning could easily make up the shortfall. But burning coal would be even worse for the planet, as it would create even more CO2
That being said ... I can guarantee that coal-burning will be used to make up the shortfall. The current coal technology is very clean in terms of chemical emissions, so if the only hang-up is CO2 emissions, I can't see too many countries choosing major blackouts over broken Kyoto promises.
 

OTIS

TRIBE Member
Originally posted by AdRiaN
That being said ... I can guarantee that coal-burning will be used to make up the shortfall. The current coal technology is very clean in terms of chemical emissions, so if the only hang-up is CO2 emissions, I can't see too many countries choosing major blackouts over broken Kyoto promises.
Sure beats the 50+ years we had to develop something else!
 

Subsonic Chronic

TRIBE Member
Shit... just realized... Chavez in Venezuela better be ready for one hell of a fight, or at least some serious assassination attempts. They're about the only big oil-exporting nation that the U.S. doesn't have in their pocket right now.

Pete
 

AdRiaN

TRIBE Member
Actually ... I'm thinking in terms of a shortfall in electricity generation in the more immediate future. If generating companies see a looming shortage of natural gas, (ie., a looming increase in natural gas prices over the long run), they are not likely to build new plants since the economics do not allow them to recover their investment.

Without new natural gas fired capacity, no other generating technology is capable of replacing coal (except for nuclear).
 

~atp~

TRIBE Member
Originally posted by AdRiaN
That being said ... I can guarantee that coal-burning will be used to make up the shortfall. The current coal technology is very clean in terms of chemical emissions, so if the only hang-up is CO2 emissions, I can't see too many countries choosing major blackouts over broken Kyoto promises.
You are very, very, very correct! *lol* VERY.

I have "insider" information on that... ;)



And there's an enormously erronous perception that natural gas is somehow copiously available...*lol*

We're running out of these products quickly folks. Hmmmm....today is the day that I put my first signficant post in this thread.
 

Boss Hog

TRIBE Member
were you trying to trick us in the other thread cuz you knew we were going to run out before we melted ourselves? If so...

well aren't you fucking clever? :p
 
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