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War in Iran

judge wopner

TRIBE Member
great article about the possibility of war in Iran, Mr. Cirincione was a vocal critic of the patriot missles in a famour documentary about 2 years ago that brought him to the forefront of military analysis, this guy is the goods.

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www.fp.com

Fool Me Twice
By Joseph Cirincione Page 1 of 1

Posted March 27, 2006

I used to think that the Bush administration wasn’t seriously considering a military strike on Iran, because it would only accelerate Iran’s nuclear program. But what we're seeing and hearing on Iran today seems awfully familiar. That may be because some U.S. officials have already decided they want to hit Iran hard.

Does this story line sound familiar? The vice president of the United States gives a major speech focused on the threat from an oil-rich nation in the Middle East. The U.S. secretary of state tells congress that the same nation is our most serious global challenge. The secretary of defense calls that nation the leading supporter of global terrorism. The president blames it for attacks on U.S. troops. The intelligence agencies say the nuclear threat from this nation is 10 years away, but the director of intelligence paints a more ominous picture. A new U.S. national security strategy trumpets preemptive attacks and highlights the country as a major threat. And neoconservatives beat the war drums, as the cable media banner their stories with words like “countdown” and “showdown.”

The nation making headlines today, of course, is Iran, not Iraq. But the parallels are striking. Three years after senior administration officials systematically misled the nation into a disastrous war, they could well be trying to do it again.

Nothing is clear, yet. For months, I have told interviewers that no senior political or military official was seriously considering a military attack on Iran. In the last few weeks, I have changed my view. In part, this shift was triggered by colleagues with close ties to the Pentagon and the executive branch who have convinced me that some senior officials have already made up their minds: They want to hit Iran.

I argued with my friends. I pointed out that a military strike would be disastrous for the United States. It would rally the Iranian public around an otherwise unpopular regime, inflame anti-American anger around the Muslim world, and jeopardize the already fragile U.S. position in Iraq. And it would accelerate, not delay, the Iranian nuclear program. Hard-liners in Tehran would be proven right in their claim that the only thing that can deter the United States is a nuclear bomb. Iranian leaders could respond with a crash nuclear program that could produce a bomb in a few years.

My friends reminded me that I had said the same about Iraq—that I was the last remaining person in Washington who believed President George W. Bush when he said that he was committed to a diplomatic solution. But this time, it is the administration’s own statements that have convinced me. What I previously dismissed as posturing, I now believe may be a coordinated campaign to prepare for a military strike on Iran.


The unfolding administration strategy appears to be an effort to repeat its successful campaign for the Iraq war. It is now trying to link Iran to the 9/11 attacks by repeatedly claiming that Iran is the main state sponsor of terrorism in the world (though this suggestion is highly questionable). It is also attempting to make the threat urgent by arguing that Iran might soon pass a “point of no return” if it can perfect the technology of enriching uranium, even though many other nations have gone far beyond Iran’s capabilities and stopped their programs short of weapons. And, of course, it is now publicly linking Iran to the Iraqi insurgency and the improvised explosive devices used to kill and maim U.S. troops in Iraq, though Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Peter Pace admitted there is no evidence to support this claim.

If diplomacy fails, the administration might be able to convince leading Democrats to back a resolution for the use of force against Iran. Many Democrats have been trying to burnish a hawkish image and place themselves to the right of the president on this issue. They may find themselves trapped by their own rhetoric, particularly those with presidential ambitions.

The factual debate during the next six months will revolve around the threat assessment. How close is Iran to developing the ability to enrich uranium for fuel or bombs? Is there a secret weapons program? Are there secret underground facilities? What would it mean if small-scale enrichment experiments succeed?

Fortunately, we know more about Iran’s nuclear program now than we ever knew about Iraq’s (or, for that matter, those of India, Israel, and Pakistan). International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors have been in Iran for more than 3 years investigating all claims of weapons-related work. The United States has satellite reconnaissance, covert programs, and Iranian dissidents providing further information. The key now is to get all this information on the table for an open debate.

The administration should now declassify the information it used to estimate how long it will be until Iran has the capability to make a bomb. The Washington Post reported last August that this national intelligence estimate says Iran is a decade away. We need to see the basis for this judgment and all, if any, dissenting opinions. The congressional intelligence committees should be conducting their own reviews of the assessments, including open hearings with independent experts and IAEA officials. Influential groups, such as the Council on Foreign Relations, should conduct their own sessions and studies.

An accurate and fully understood assessment of the status and potential of Iran’s nuclear program is the essential basis for any policy. We cannot let the political or ideological agenda of a small group determine a national security decision that could create havoc in a critical area of the globe. Not again.



Joseph Cirincione is director for non-proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
 

SellyCat

TRIBE Member
I'm on the fence.

Some have said that the administration wants to look crazy...so they could be firing up the engines in order to make the Iranians believe the strike is seriously coming in order to moderate their behavior. Except that could easily be untrue, because if I was Iran, I'd be feeling very confident that I could TOTALLY humiliate the US, even if they take out the nuke sites.

The reason being that Iran really is the world's best state sponsor of terrorism. They performed flawlessly in Lebanon using their Hezbollah fighter and Revolutionary Guards...they even took out the entire CIA station staff, including its CHIEF when they but a huge bomb in the room right above their "safe house" apartment. Just kiled everyone. And then there's the US Marine baracks bombing, and whole host of aircraft hijackings, and at least five very well coordinated attempted coups in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain. And they were also responsible for the bombing of the US Air Force training HQ in Saudi Arabia--I think it was called the Khobar Towers--which was originally thought to be an early AQ hit, and some people still list it as one.

THat being said, I really hope the US doesn't attack Iran, because they will pay a very heavy price. Iran could easily just invade Iraq and take it over...The US doesn't have enough troops there and the Iranians have a very good military, the Revolutionary Guards. (It's a good military because before the Revolution, they had the same arrangement with America that Israel does today, a 2 Billion dollar carte blanche shopping list.) If they think terrorism is bad now--and it is--it's gonna get so much worse.
 

Ditto Much

TRIBE Member
Boss Hog said:
oh come on some part of your morbid side wants to see the US try and fuck up majorly.



The bigger they get the harder they fall and at the end of the day oh how I want to see the US fall. Its just easier to give them enough rope to hang themselves.
 
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Ditto Much

TRIBE Member
dig this said:
holy shit... that would almost be funny to see.
I'd say its likely how the US will 'cause' the next war. I wonder if the USA will run children through minefields like Saddam did...
 

SellyCat

TRIBE Member
dig this said:
holy shit... that would almost be funny to see.
Yeah man, as a state, the Revolutionary Government of Iran has been obsessed with forming a unified Shi'ite block between Iranian and Iraqi Shi'ites. One of the biggest political blocs in Iraq, SCIRI (Something Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq) is specifically Iranian backed. (Iran being the self-declared Shi'ite flag bearer). And they're well on their way...already the shiite militia that belong to SCIRI, the Badr Corps is Iranian backed and if the Shii can prevent being provoked into a horrible civil war, then they will have Iraq and will be very close friends with Iran.

And the Americans look like the biggest fools letting this happen. America is supposedly fighting a war against so-called "Islamo Fascism" and yet they replaced a secular state with the "Islamic Republic of Iraq" That's going to be it's official name when they finish this bickering over the government. I wanted to toss my cookies when I heard the Americans promised the Shiite religious leaders authority in Iraq--mind you they had no choice, because that was the product of the election anyway.
 

judge wopner

TRIBE Member
SellyCat said:
I'm on the fence.

because if I was Iran, I'd be feeling very confident that I could TOTALLY humiliate the US, even if they take out the nuke sites.
please if i was iran id issuing edicts demanding all hot persain girls remove their chadoor's.
 
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SellyCat

TRIBE Member
Boss Hog said:
yeah wtf is with how hot Iranian girls are anyway
Almost ALL middle easterners guy...Shit, have you ever seen Lebanese or Israeli girls? Fuuuuck... Nobody gets to see much of Saudi, Kuwaiti, Qatari, Omani chicks though. Not too sure about Egyptians.

94% of Egyptians girls have their clitoris removed without anesthetic when they are between 6 and 12 years old. (This is not an Islamic practice, they only think it is...it's a North African maniacal thing..the only other place that does it one such a scale is Sudan....and we know about the Sudanese)
 
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judge wopner

TRIBE Member
SellyCat said:
Almost ALL middle easterners guy...Shit, have you ever seen Lebanese or Israeli girls? Fuuuuck... Nobody gets to see much of Saudi, Kuwaiti, Qatari, Omani chicks though. Not too sure about Egyptians.

94% of Egyptians girls have their clitoris removed without anesthetic when they are between 6 and 12 years old. (This is not an Islamic practice, they only think it is...it's a North African maniacal thing..the only other place that does it one such a scale is Sudan....and we know about the Sudanese)
its big in east africa (sudan, ethiopia and somalia) as well as nigeria but from what im hearing less and less so, and not as prominent int he large urban areas.

either way, thats brutal stuff,

but back to persain girls:

persian girls are hot, i dated a girl who was half morrocian/sri lankin and she mentioned how a long time ago some of her family may have been persian, so i went overboard telling peope i was dating a persian girl i tried to really accentuate her persian elements by making her wear the chadoor and didnt let her go outside unless accompanied by another woman of known virture.
 

Boss Hog

TRIBE Member
Ditto Much said:
Depends are you going to do to me what you did to that poor little piglet cause than hell no!!

Should have seen me at Christmas. The local pet store had this potbellied pig for sale, it was oh so small and cute. I visited it like three times before they sold it.

Then I saw it listed at the SPCA a few months later. :(
 

Ditto Much

TRIBE Member
judge wopner said:
its big in east africa (sudan, ethiopia and somalia) as well as nigeria but from what im hearing less and less so, and not as prominent int he large urban areas.

either way, thats brutal stuff,

but back to persain girls:

persian girls are hot, i dated a girl who was half morrocian/sri lankin and she mentioned how a long time ago some of her family may have been persian, so i went overboard telling peope i was dating a persian girl i tried to really accentuate her persian elements by making her wear the chadoor and didnt let her go outside unless accompanied by another woman of known virture.
[american english translation]

I dated a chick who wasn't white so I bought her some lingerie and had her invite her little sister over for a threesome.

[/american english translation]
 

Ditto Much

TRIBE Member
Boss Hog said:
Should have seen me at Christmas. The local pet store had this potbellied pig for sale, it was oh so small and cute. I visited it like three times before they sold it.

Then I saw it listed at the SPCA a few months later. :(
I wish I still had that picture, I wonder if I could photochop a seal in its place
 
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Ditto Much

TRIBE Member
Boss Hog said:
I have that pic saved to my screensaver mosaic (the ich liebe meine schweinfleish one)

yeah I'm not so sure about the german on that one! but it just wasn't as funny in english, kind of like...

Warum wir in Polen sind?


really isn't funny in english
 

SellyCat

TRIBE Member
Ditto Much said:
yeah I'm not so sure about the german on that one! but it just wasn't as funny in english, kind of like...

Warum wir in Polen sind?


really isn't funny in english
LOL

That's totally a peircing insight into the potentially dangerous looming conflict between America and Iran, and the possible consequences to an already much-troubled region. :D
 

Ditto Much

TRIBE Member
Yeah I was going to print up a hole bunch of shirts with "Support our troupes" and an american flag on the front and "Warum wir in Polen sind?" on the back to sell on July 4th.
 

dig this

TRIBE Member
Boss Hog said:
yeah so anyway middle eastern girls are hot.
yup.

i'd say lebanese & iranians take top prize..

Indian chicks do it for me too. But maybe I should start a new thread for that.
 
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