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Toronto Condos are the new Bitcoins

alexd

Administrator
Staff member
I just read that 50,000 new units are coming onto the market this year. I guess these are the microscopic little units they are still trying to sell as 'lofts' with lifestyle marketing.

When will the Toronto condo bubble burst? July? August?
 

Isosceles_CAT

TRIBE Promoter
Haven't people been predicting the Toronto condo bubble will burst for like 15 years?

Of course, it's possible that it has crashed many times in the last 15 years and I just have no idea because I don't own a condo. It just seems like I constantly hear about people predicting it, but never hear about an actual crash happening.
 

alexd

Administrator
Staff member
Haven't people been predicting the Toronto condo bubble will burst for like 15 years?

Of course, it's possible that it has crashed many times in the last 15 years and I just have no idea because I don't own a condo. It just seems like I constantly hear about people predicting it, but never hear about an actual crash happening.
Well, people were saying bitcoins were awesome and not to worry about a crash right up to the point when they actually did. When it started happening, it happened really fast.

I don't see how they can keep building these things. Is there is an endless stream of speculators who are buying them? Locals who are already up to their necks in debt and to whom a 2% increase in the prime rate would drive into bankrupcy - are they buying them?

As for the speculators, why would anyone even assume they are an investment that will continue to increase in value (fast!!), when there is no scarcity and more and more keep coming on the market?

And the shoddy construction... Will they need massive upgrades in 10 years because of falling glass, leaking condo walls and windows, or other expensive to fix issues? Probably.
 
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Isosceles_CAT

TRIBE Promoter
Who was saying that bitcoins would never crash??? That is ridiculous, and anyone who said that is more than a bit out to lunch. I've been involved in bitcoins for some time and have never heard anything of the sort. That being said, can you really call what happened to BTC a crash? It lost a lot of value but is still worth 10 times what it was when I got in, and seems to have stabilized.

Anyway, most of what you are saying about the condo market doesn't seem to have much basis in fact. Is your stance that it has to crash sometime because there are a lot of them being built? As long as there is more supply than demand, then I don't think it will crash. But again, I am hardly in a position to speak authoritatively about this subject.
 

praktik

TRIBE Member
Guys, this has been going on since the Dutch tulip craze

Will always happen

All we can hope is to tame it a bit so the swings aren't so violent.
 

djfear

TRIBE Member
Oh hey, I have an idea... why don't I buy myself a house in Leslieville or the Beach, or anywhere else worth living in that is close to the core (in relation to Scarborough, 'sauga, Brampton, Vaughn, Oakville)? Oh what's that? I don't have $650-850k for a piece of shit "fix-er-upper"? Yeeeeaaaahhhh......

Condo it is. :| That or the 'burbs.
 

djglobalkiller

TRIBE Promoter
first time buyers with a SINK have no chance at getting a decent sized condo downtown unless you make 6 figures. not figuring in expenses, maintenance fees, taxes, etc as well. prices will drop a bit, but it will never crash, there is always someone willing to rent. it might be tougher for new developers to green light a project for construction if their units don t sell (due to all the other new units available), but never the less, it will never crash
 
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unique2100

TRIBE Promoter
Well then I think you're flat out wrong. Although I just reread your post and have no idea what SINK is. SO you may be right sir.
 

alexd

Administrator
Staff member
The SINK is probably the only thing that won't fall apart in those new condos within 5 years.
 
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coleridge

TRIBE Member
I just went to a planning event last night and the key speaker was a well known senior planner discussing the condofication of Toronto.

Her message in the end was while all the papers are printing sensationalized articles of doom and gloom for the condo market, things are probably going to slow down a bit but she doesn't think there's a crash.

The next development boom in Toronto is going to be office space.
 
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djfear

TRIBE Member
I guess I fit into the "SINK" model.

It would take so much for a condo crash to happen. All the jobs would have to move to the 'burbs for that to happen. It will flatten out and slow down of course. I do know one thing though... there are a ton of investors who are driving up the prices + increasing the supply of the rental market, but such is the game I guess?

I'm of the camp that while some of the condos are pretty expensive and insane, it levels out when you take other costs into account. Auto insurance + GO train costs + quality of life are all nuts for people who live in the suburbs. Nevermind the lack of a decent night life.

My car insurance went from $1100 --> $1400 --> $1700 --> $2700 all without a change in driving record, and add GO Transit at $230 / month and you have yourself your maintenance fee + some other bills covered for a modest sized condo dwelling. Now for me it's a 20 minute walk to work, improved health benefits from all the walking + rock climbing gym (nevermind the sprained ankle part :p), more access to night life, less dependency on a car, and a happier life in general.

Now how do I break into the detached home market in Toronto? At this point it's simply not in my reach.
 

kuba

TRIBE Member
no, toronto condos are NOT the next bitcoin

a toronto condo is a property in the fourth largest city in north america

yes, there is a sudden glut of inventory (perhaps), except the majority of that inventory has already been pre-sold

oh yeah and with a 99% rental rate in the city that glut will be consumed up

i'm not saying it's not out of the realm of possibility that prices will drop in condos. matter of fact they have softened. i don't see a crash coming nor do I see a massive slodown because? because rates will remain below 3% for the next 18-24 months at least so people will be able to afford these condos

I hate when people post fear-mongering BS when they read an article or something, and don't look at both sides of the (bit)coin
 

AgentSanchez

TRIBE Promoter
no, toronto condos are NOT the next bitcoin

a toronto condo is a property in the fourth largest city in north america

yes, there is a sudden glut of inventory (perhaps), except the majority of that inventory has already been pre-sold

oh yeah and with a 99% rental rate in the city that glut will be consumed up

i'm not saying it's not out of the realm of possibility that prices will drop in condos. matter of fact they have softened. i don't see a crash coming nor do I see a massive slodown because? because rates will remain below 3% for the next 18-24 months at least so people will be able to afford these condos

I hate when people post fear-mongering BS when they read an article or something, and don't look at both sides of the (bit)coin
So, basically, low interest rates is the fundamental driver safeguarding the Toronto real estate market? Doesn't sound like you're much of an authority either...
 
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