SneakyPete
TRIBE Member
No surprise that the new came this week as friday is the deadline to register to run for Councillor. He'll have a better shot at winning as a Councillor than the mayor.
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This is a mayoral campaign thread, not for the tabloid stuff
- Thread starter erika
- Start date
He's not going to run for councillor: he already was one and chose not to run again.
I'm so pissed off at mainstream media and how they pretty well collectively refused to pay him any attention, always favouring the latest twinfords bs over anything substantive.
It's like all municipal reporting turned into tabloid journalism.
I'm so pissed off at mainstream media and how they pretty well collectively refused to pay him any attention, always favouring the latest twinfords bs over anything substantive.
It's like all municipal reporting turned into tabloid journalism.
Littlest Hobo
TRIBE Member
Chow needs to do the city a favour and drop out. Her legacy will remain favourable as she will not win and by remaining she will only split votes. If she attracts enough votes to split the non-crazy demographic that ensures a Ford win she will be vilified for a long time. Poor Jack's statue will have to have a police guard.
Spinsah
TRIBE Member
Chow's not dropping out, nor should she. She's the only progressive candidate on the ballot and it's important that choice is present on election day. Tory is polling at 40% now, Ford at 28% and she's down at 21%. With Soknacki out, it seems almost assured that Ford will not be re-elected. That specter of a three-way split with Ford and his base managing to get elected with 30% has now evaporated. For Chow, the best thing she can do is embrace some of the meatier policy options Soknacki put forward, she needs to capture the imagination of people down the home stretch, her campaign has been completely uninspiring and Tory is only leading by default.
It is probably too late to fire her entire campaign strategy and backroom people but she should anyway because they suck donkey balls. She could have probably done better with a group of randomly picked people off the street running her campaign!
Littlest Hobo
TRIBE Member
'Almost assured' means nothing for Ford. With Ford, anything can happen. He is slippery and dangerous and incredibly resilient. Got caught smoking crack, airborne police surveillance, drunk driving, drunk coaching. He rides it out.
If Chow gains steam it will come from Tory not Ford. Ford will stay strong. Then there will be 3 way dead-heat, with the very real possibility that Ford is still mayor Oct. 28.
Littlest Hobo
TRIBE Member
Also, we are forgetting about the not-insignificant number of people who will never admit to wanting to vote for Ford but will anyway.
Spinsah
TRIBE Member
I agree with you that support for Chow will have to come from Tory, though I think she'll absorb more Soknacki supporters than Tory will, which will give her a boost. I don't share your view that Ford still has a chance, I do believe his ceiling is right at 30% and with Towhey's tell-all coming out, a few big dirt bombs on him before the election should sink him. He is resilient though and I'm not writing him off entirely.
It's somewhat ironic that Chow, at one time the front runner of this race, is so far back now even though she's employing a similar strategy to Tory. Her safe and centrist campaign has actually deflated her, yet that same approach has buoyed Tory. What Olivia has failed to realize is that there are many voters in this city who want meaty city building policies that are pragmatic yet imaginative. That's why so many of us where drawn to Soknacki.
She has an opportunity to turn her campaign around, but there's got to be a major shift in tone and policy.
It's somewhat ironic that Chow, at one time the front runner of this race, is so far back now even though she's employing a similar strategy to Tory. Her safe and centrist campaign has actually deflated her, yet that same approach has buoyed Tory. What Olivia has failed to realize is that there are many voters in this city who want meaty city building policies that are pragmatic yet imaginative. That's why so many of us where drawn to Soknacki.
She has an opportunity to turn her campaign around, but there's got to be a major shift in tone and policy.
Spinsah
TRIBE Member
I've seen you mention this before, but what do you base this assumption on?
If any of the millennials vote, they will probably vote for Ford. I have overheard so many say they would vote for him because of his pro-drug stance LOL.
Littlest Hobo
TRIBE Member
I don't think Towheys book will do anything. Short of Ford killing a baby his supporters won't care. Frankly he should be kissing Ford's ass as he only relevant because of Ford.
This is not a normal election. At the provincial election I voted Green, knowing full well they won't win but it is important that different groups be represented and whomever won would not be the end of the world. This time is much different. The prospect of the Ford Circus continuing is stomach-churning. If Chow is the frontrunner I'd vote for her too.
This is not a normal election. At the provincial election I voted Green, knowing full well they won't win but it is important that different groups be represented and whomever won would not be the end of the world. This time is much different. The prospect of the Ford Circus continuing is stomach-churning. If Chow is the frontrunner I'd vote for her too.
derek
TRIBE Member
take with a grain of salt
Toronto election poll: Tory leads big as Chow plummets in Scarborough | Toronto Star
Toronto election poll: Tory leads big as Chow plummets in Scarborough | Toronto Star
Littlest Hobo
TRIBE Member
Human nature is that people lie, and people do not like to be embarrassed. Admitting to a stranger that you will vote for Ford is embarrassing. It's the same thing as when you lie to your doctor (oh I have 2 drinks per night) or your accountant (the receipts are somewhere).
praktik
TRIBE Member
Still a secret Ford supporter, suffering from a case of underdog-loving-itis, may not always be a secret Ford voter.
Question is one of motivation - what do Ford supporters, secret or otherwise, have to be jazzed about this round?
Maybe we should just ask JamesM and use him for a proxy to this group..
Question is one of motivation - what do Ford supporters, secret or otherwise, have to be jazzed about this round?
Maybe we should just ask JamesM and use him for a proxy to this group..
What she needs are a few of Soknacki team people.
I don't agree at all (and would even argue that this is "old man" thinking
).You have imbeciles in all generations, we know that. You also have intelligent kids who have been interested in the campaign of someone like Morgan Baskin. Soknacki polled well with younger age groups, and god knows he's as straight and nerdy as they come.
Then you have someone like the lead singer for Billy Talent urging people at Riot Fest to a) vote and b) NOT vote for that "fat racist homophobic pig".
I remain hopeful; and personally know several people who voted Ford in 2010 and wouldn't dream of doing it again.
Klubmasta Will
TRIBE Member
this.
i wish that olivia chow could turn it around with a strong message that she stands for policies that will help the poor and lessen the income gap. there are a lot of ford supporters that live in poorer neighbourhoods that would likely vote for olivia chow if they fully understood her.
her team has not done a good job of delivering her message. i will still vote for her, as i like her political leanings more than i like tory's.
Go on girl!!! Fight the power.
When everybody mentions Ford at the first opportunity, in every media, on every stage, and he gets 90% of the media coverage anyway it is no wonder he is polling so high.
Why twerking Miley Cyrus thinks there's no such thing as bad publicity | Life and style | theguardian.com
Rather than wearing 1000 different ethnic outfits to try an blend into local community populations at their events and speaking about kids and children in general unspecific terms that no one could hold her to later on, I think had Olivia stuck to a pure transit and anti gridlock message based on a well crafted driving/cycling/transit plan that she could communicate publicly and clearly in a 1000 different ways she would be leading right now.
Clearly anyone who has walked, cycled, TTC'd or driven around Toronto since the spring has the transportation issue top of mind and is reminded of how bad things are every single day. The person who effectively communicates a solution to this would win the election IMO.
Clearly anyone who has walked, cycled, TTC'd or driven around Toronto since the spring has the transportation issue top of mind and is reminded of how bad things are every single day. The person who effectively communicates a solution to this would win the election IMO.
Wiseman
TRIBE Member
IMO Kinsella sank her. The moment I heard about him being involved I had a bad feeling.
Agreed with Spinsah that Ford's ceiling as a BEST CASE is 30%. It is ludicrous to think that neither of the other 2 front-runners would not get over 30%. It looks like that person will be Tory unfortunately but at this point I don't see Olivia able to turn it around enough to win.
I peg Ford's extended base (not core) at 24%. His Core as in those who will definitely get out to the polls is likely less than 20% and the remaining 4% is either going to vote for him or not show up. Depending on how he does until the next election an additional 6% will either be in his camp or Tories.
Neither Tory or Olivia will lose any voters to Ford over the next month and a half. Any voters currently in their respective camps will only go to the other.
I think Olivia's only chance is to focus on a consistent progressive message for the rest of the campaign and convince progressive voters on Tory's side that strategic voting is not necessary.
Agreed with Spinsah that Ford's ceiling as a BEST CASE is 30%. It is ludicrous to think that neither of the other 2 front-runners would not get over 30%. It looks like that person will be Tory unfortunately but at this point I don't see Olivia able to turn it around enough to win.
I peg Ford's extended base (not core) at 24%. His Core as in those who will definitely get out to the polls is likely less than 20% and the remaining 4% is either going to vote for him or not show up. Depending on how he does until the next election an additional 6% will either be in his camp or Tories.
Neither Tory or Olivia will lose any voters to Ford over the next month and a half. Any voters currently in their respective camps will only go to the other.
I think Olivia's only chance is to focus on a consistent progressive message for the rest of the campaign and convince progressive voters on Tory's side that strategic voting is not necessary.
agreed.
As for Ford I think he'll win another term, none of the candidates have done enough to beat him. Tory has come on stronger in the last two debates but he still hasn't done enough.
If Chow was smart she would drop out, while I get the importance of having an alternative I too think there's a risk if she's still around and Ford wins. Her municipal career will be constantly dogged by her being the one who stuck around too long and allowed Ford to win another term. That could kill her future prospects in this city. While I don't support her as Mayor, I think she is an excellent counsellor and she truly has done some great things for this city. It would be a shame to see her lose her voice on municipal matters.