Asteroid 1950 DA's Encounter with Earth in 2880: Physical Limits of Collision Probability Prediction
J. D. Giorgini,1* S. J. Ostro,1 L. A. M. Benner,1 P. W. Chodas,1 S. R. Chesley,1 R. S. Hudson,2 M. C. Nolan,3 A. R. Klemola,4 E. M. Standish,1 R. F. Jurgens,1 R. Rose,1 A. B. Chamberlin,1 D. K. Yeomans,1 J.-L. Margot5
Integration of the orbit of asteroid (29075) 1950 DA, which is based on radar and optical measurements spanning 51 years, reveals a 20-minute interval in March 2880 when there could be a nonnegligible probability of the 1-kilometer object colliding with Earth. Trajectory knowledge remains accurate until then because of extensive astrometric data, an inclined orbit geometry that reduces in-plane perturbations, and an orbit uncertainty space modulated by gravitational resonance. The approach distance uncertainty in 2880 is determined primarily by uncertainty in the accelerations arising from thermal re-radiation of solar energy absorbed by the asteroid. Those accelerations depend on the spin axis, composition, and surface properties of the asteroid, so that refining the collision probability may require direct inspection by a spacecraft.
1 Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109-8099, USA.
2 School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164-2752, USA.
3 Arecibo Observatory, Arecibo, Puerto Rico 00612, USA.
4 Lick Observatory, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA.
5 California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA.
Say hello to the rock that has a .3% chance of running into earth.
Full article full article
Really the article is all about how good the prediction models are but its interesting.
RUN FOR THE HILLLS....... RUN FOR YOUR LIVES
J. D. Giorgini,1* S. J. Ostro,1 L. A. M. Benner,1 P. W. Chodas,1 S. R. Chesley,1 R. S. Hudson,2 M. C. Nolan,3 A. R. Klemola,4 E. M. Standish,1 R. F. Jurgens,1 R. Rose,1 A. B. Chamberlin,1 D. K. Yeomans,1 J.-L. Margot5
Integration of the orbit of asteroid (29075) 1950 DA, which is based on radar and optical measurements spanning 51 years, reveals a 20-minute interval in March 2880 when there could be a nonnegligible probability of the 1-kilometer object colliding with Earth. Trajectory knowledge remains accurate until then because of extensive astrometric data, an inclined orbit geometry that reduces in-plane perturbations, and an orbit uncertainty space modulated by gravitational resonance. The approach distance uncertainty in 2880 is determined primarily by uncertainty in the accelerations arising from thermal re-radiation of solar energy absorbed by the asteroid. Those accelerations depend on the spin axis, composition, and surface properties of the asteroid, so that refining the collision probability may require direct inspection by a spacecraft.
1 Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109-8099, USA.
2 School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164-2752, USA.
3 Arecibo Observatory, Arecibo, Puerto Rico 00612, USA.
4 Lick Observatory, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA.
5 California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA.
Say hello to the rock that has a .3% chance of running into earth.
Full article full article
Really the article is all about how good the prediction models are but its interesting.
RUN FOR THE HILLLS....... RUN FOR YOUR LIVES
