• Hi Guest: Welcome to TRIBE, the online home of TRIBE MAGAZINE. If you'd like to post here, or reply to existing posts on TRIBE, you first have to register. Join us!

The end might be 798 years away!!!


TRIBE Member
Asteroid 1950 DA's Encounter with Earth in 2880: Physical Limits of Collision Probability Prediction
J. D. Giorgini,1* S. J. Ostro,1 L. A. M. Benner,1 P. W. Chodas,1 S. R. Chesley,1 R. S. Hudson,2 M. C. Nolan,3 A. R. Klemola,4 E. M. Standish,1 R. F. Jurgens,1 R. Rose,1 A. B. Chamberlin,1 D. K. Yeomans,1 J.-L. Margot5

Integration of the orbit of asteroid (29075) 1950 DA, which is based on radar and optical measurements spanning 51 years, reveals a 20-minute interval in March 2880 when there could be a nonnegligible probability of the 1-kilometer object colliding with Earth. Trajectory knowledge remains accurate until then because of extensive astrometric data, an inclined orbit geometry that reduces in-plane perturbations, and an orbit uncertainty space modulated by gravitational resonance. The approach distance uncertainty in 2880 is determined primarily by uncertainty in the accelerations arising from thermal re-radiation of solar energy absorbed by the asteroid. Those accelerations depend on the spin axis, composition, and surface properties of the asteroid, so that refining the collision probability may require direct inspection by a spacecraft.

1 Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109-8099, USA.
2 School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164-2752, USA.
3 Arecibo Observatory, Arecibo, Puerto Rico 00612, USA.
4 Lick Observatory, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA.
5 California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA.


Say hello to the rock that has a .3% chance of running into earth.

Full article full article

Really the article is all about how good the prediction models are but its interesting.

Subscribe to Cannabis Goldsmith, wherever you get your podcasts


TRIBE Member
i population of the earth is going to grow so exponentially that we won't have enough resources to sustain ourselves long before this meteor hits .


TRIBE Member
Funny thing is I don't really know how to feel about it, if in fact the collision does occur... What are the chances we are even going to still be around?

Maybe it'll kill a bunch of [Heston] DAMN DIRTY APES [Heston]! Then in that case I don't care at all... exept for the young innocent infant apes tho
Subscribe to Cannabis Goldsmith, wherever you get your podcasts