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the economy

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TRIBE Member
The comodity / oil price jumps are due to both factors.

China and India have only just started thier rise and look at what it has done so far.


The note worthy points are the realative stability in the prices for almost all metals until about 2003/04 when they shot up to DOUBLE stable price of the past decade and a half in only two years.

Looking at transportation costs yeilds a similar trend.

I attended a conference in Miami in Oct. 03 where one word was repeated over and over again "China". Not one person in the conference had any confidence in anything, no one had answers, one presenter wouldn't even give hand outs because he "didn't want any written record" of his presentation. The confustion was because shipping costs had done the same thing as comodities were about to do, but it had happened in a matter of months. It was also note worthy that I think I could have counted the number of Indian attendees on one hand and the number of chinese on the other.

It's quite simple when one looks closer at China and India. Both countries want to attain a living standard enjoyed by the North Americans. That means they will be increasing thier consumption per person. The markets are realing because there are 2.2 billion people who are increasing thier standard of living. I think this is fairly convincing evidence that consumption of resources is a 0 sum game.

What this means is that if one group wishes to increase consumption the other must decrease thier consumption proportinately. It makes sense because the world is made up of finite resources. In the past these theories had been dismised in the same way that dumping garbage into the ocean had been dismissed. People thought that our pool of resources was big enough to discount competition, a kind of "there's plenty to go around".

This isn't true. "there's plenty (gold, oil, steel, water, air) to go around" alrigh, so long as you only want it to go around the 300 million or so North Americans consuming it.

Makes the "Peri-air" from space balls is less funny then when I first saw it.


TRIBE Member
Totally unrelated, but in 1998, one of Eric Sprott's underlings made (what was easily a disastrous decision) of hiring my ass as an intern.

Thankfully the company has gone from strength to strength despite the damage I inflicted in 2 months with my 3 hours lunches, freqent naps at my desk, and general key ability to dissapear during the busiest times.

Good to see him still churning good stuff out.