Originally posted by PosTMOd
Oscar predictions are easy. If there is an epic, pick it. If there are two epics, pick the fantasy; even crappy epics win, if based on children's books, for people have no objectivity when it comes to crap they read as kids turned into pap they watch as adults.
Actually a fantasy film has never won as best picture- I guess that rule may change though because they seem to the most lucrative at the present.
Academy awards are given out based on a few simple rules:
a) The least ethnic and most marketable actors, generally between 30 and 45, wins the major acting prizes. When people catch on, the prize is given to someone a little more ethnic but just as marketable that the Academy can be praised for not stereotyping yet still give the film industry a push by promoting the star of their movies (Halle Berry, etc).
b) Actors who have been nominated a million times for incredible performances may upset the marketable non ethnic actor and win for a highly mediocre performance because the Academy thinks is their 'due' (Paul Newman- The Colour of Money, etc).
c) Supporting acting prizes are given to unknowns- up and coming people who only do shitty movies after, or old British people. Either way the actors are always known with the term 'Academy award winning' preceding their name that we may not forget their one moment of glory.
d) The most mainstream, politically correct, and lucrative film will generally win (typically an epic). Sometimes people will cry foul and the Academy will try to make amends by 'getting with the times' and awarding the prize to some small artsy movie (Midnight Cowboy) and will be praised for not letting low profile talent slip under the radar, before resuming their usual bloated movie promotion.
We all snicker at the term 'Academy of the art and science of motion pictures' and their yearly orgy of mutual masturbation, patting each other on the back, and pageantry yet faithfully watch year after year in the rare hope that someone who actually deserves to be given recognition will. It never happens, but ah well.
