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Global Warming: A debate that I will win.

judge wopner

TRIBE Member
Boss Hog said:
I'm betting your brain is incapable of seeing the irony and ridiculousness in any of your posts.

being well aware of the ridiculousness of my own posts, the fact that you would accuse someone of this without some sort of emoticon to imply the pot calling the kettle black displays a serious deficit in your understanding of irony,
 

PosTMOd

Well-Known TRIBEr
Irony has come to mean something quite opposite from what it truly meant beforehand, and that may or may not be actual irony.
 

Hi i'm God

TRIBE Member
A triumph for man, a disaster for mankind



Saturday, 12 September 2009

No commercial vessel has ever successfully travelled the North-east Passage, a fabled Arctic Sea route that links the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific far more directly than the usual southerly cargo route.

It has been one of the elusive goals of seafaring nations almost since the beginnings of waterborne trade, but for nearly 500 years the idea has been dismissed as an impossible dream. Now, as a result of global warming, the dream is about to come true.

Within days, a journey that represents both a huge commercial boon and a dark milestone on the route to environmental catastrophe is expected to be completed for the first time. No commercial vessel has ever successfully travelled the North-east Passage, a fabled Arctic Sea route that links the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific far more directly than the usual southerly cargo route. Explorers throughout history have tried, and failed; some have died in the attempt.

But early next week the German-owned vessels, Beluga Fraternity and Beluga Foresight, are scheduled to dock in the Dutch port of Rotterdam. It is the culmination of a two-month voyage from South Korea across the perilous waters of the Arctic, where an unprecedented ice-melt has at last made the previously impassable course a viable possibility.
Related articles

The new route could transform Russia's economic fortunes. Throughout history, the country's search for a warm-water port that would provide sea routes open year-round has dominated the geopolitics of the region. But the economic advantages are balanced by the disastrous environmental news that the transit represents.

"This is further proof that climate change is happening now," said Melanie Duchin, Arctic Expedition leader on board the Greenpeace ship Arctic Sunrise, who added that the development put greater pressure on world leaders to agree a major emissions cut at their Copenhagen meeting in December. "This is not a cause for celebration but cause for immediate action," she said.

The 12,000-tonne vessels' summer journey through the Northeast Passage was carried out with 3,500 tonnes of construction materials and parts for a Siberian power station on board. Once completed, the voyage will have shortened the traditional commercial sea route from the Far East to Europe – via the Suez Canal – by more than 4,000 nautical miles.

Russian maritime officials are now hoping that the feat will result in an "Arctic Rush" with the northern sea route becoming a viable summer competitor to the Suez and Panama canals. They have offered to cut ice-breaker fees in the North-east Passage to encourage major shipping companies to start using it.

Nils Stolberg, the President of the Bremen-based Beluga group which organised the commercial voyage insisted yesterday that ships' transit was not an experiment but the first step towards opening the North-east Passage to shipping world wide. He said his company already had new contracts to ship goods along the route from Asia to Siberia next summer.

"We are all very proud and delighted to be the first Western shipping company to have successfully transited the legendary North-east Passage and delivered a sensitive cargo safely through this extraordinarily demanding sea area," he said. He also estimated that the path had saved $92,000 (£55,000) worth of fuel for each ship.

Despite global warming, the Northeast Passage is still seriously hampered by hundred-mile long swathes of shifting pack ice that extend southwards from the North Pole even in summer. The islands off the north coast of Siberia also contain glaciers which cast icebergs into the warming waters of the passage with increasing frequency.

In 1983 a Russian ship was crushed by pack ice it encountered in the passage in the middle of summer. However, the Russian Transport Ministry which operates a fleet of six nuclear powered-ice-breakers to assist Russian and other coastal commercial ships, says that in recent summers the route has rarely been completely impassable. "The ice conditions were far more severe 20 years ago," a spokesman said.

The voyage of the two Beluga vessels was certainly no picnic. Although not thoroughbred ice-breakers themselves, both ships were designed to cope with ice-strewn waters and were accompanied by at least one Russian nuclear ice-breaker during the whole of the trip. The two ships encountered snow, fog, ice floes, and treacherous icebergs which showed only about one meter of their huge underwater volume on the sea's surface.

The most challenging stretch of the voyage came at its northernmost point, the Vilkizi Strait on the tip of Siberia. Half of the sea's surface was covered with pack ice and the captains of both vessels had to call Russian ice pilots on board to shepherd them through. Vlarey Durov, captain of the Beluga Foresight spoke of the stress he experienced from having to keep a constant lookout for ice and the time spent waiting for the seas to clear. But he insisted: "It is an economically and ecologically beneficial shortcut between Europe and Asia... On such voyages the advantage of fewer miles can outweigh the delays in waiting for clear water."

Finding a North-east Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific was the goal of mariners and governments in 16th-century Europe because the route would have shortened the voyage to the newly discovered spice islands of the East Indies by some 2,000 miles – the equivalent of a year's sailing.

However, most expeditions ended in disaster. The first attempt by the British navigator Richard Chancellor took place in 1553 but was brought to an abrupt halt in the winter of the same year when his ships became trapped in the ice. Chancellor abandoned ship and marched across the ice to Moscow where he was entertained at the court of Ivan the Terrible.

His fellow explorer Sir Hugh Willoughby stayed with his crew aboard ship and was discovered frozen to death two years later.

Another attempt in 1597 by the Dutch explorer William Barents ended with his ship being trapped and crushed in the ice. Barents and his crew were forced to spend the winter in a makeshift driftwood hut living on polar bear meat. Barents, after whom the polar Barents sea is named, did not survive either.

If the current voyage ends successfully, such maritime disasters may become a thing of the past. But a separate environmental disaster may be only beginning to unfold.
 

Colm

TRIBE Member
Finally, our conquest of the North can begin.

Did you hear me, Inuit Nations?

Wez kumin fer yer sealz, meltin yer icz
 

atbell

TRIBE Member
Back around the turn of the century I heard that the Russian's had been using that passage for some time. They've got a different kind of ice breaker that is more of an add on to a standard ship, it kind of fits around the ship being escorted like.

It's possible that it was a tall tale, you know how the shippers like a good story, but the guy I heard it from was pretty reliable ... ...
 
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Boss Hog

TRIBE Member
giant surprise

Climate change dispute a 'fake debate,' expert says

Updated: Sun Oct. 18 2009 4:00:40 PM

CTV.ca News Staff

Confused by all the mixed messages about climate change? There's a good reason for that, says a public relations expert, who argues in a new book that the so-called global warming debate is a tug-of-war between clever PR tactics and sound science.

In 2006, Al Gore's Oscar-winning film "An Inconvenient Truth" catapulted the issue of human-caused climate change out of scientific journals and into the living rooms of average folks.

At the same time, then-president George W. Bush and his staff were touting research that not only questioned whether climate change was a man-made event, but whether it was happening at all.

But James Hoggan, a veteran Vancouver public relations executive, says many of the naysayers are groups with legitimate-sounding names that are actually funded by industries that would suffer economically by climate change legislation or other efforts to curb global warming.

"What I would call them is Astroturf groups," Hoggan told Canada AM earlier this week. "Basically fake grassroots groups of unqualified scientists saying that climate science is questionable."

Hoggan has written a new book on the issue, entitled "Climate Cover-Up: The Crusade to Deny Global Warming."

According to Hoggan, companies that want to dispute environmental science findings -- such as an energy companies seeking to refute climate change data -- hire public relations firms to lobby governments, and the public, to ensure that legislation and public opinion remain favourable to industry.

One way of doing this is to establish a lobby group that appears to be backed by sound science when in fact it is funded by industry money.

An example of this, Hoggan says, is the Advancement of Sound Science Center, formerly the Advancement of Sound Science Coalition. It was founded in the early 1990s by a public relations firm and funded by tobacco company Philip Morris.

The TASSC's job was to discredit research that proved a link between exposure to tobacco smoke and health problems such as cancer and lung disease.

According to Hoggan, such groups hire scientists who aren't devoted to the issue at hand -- "white coats for hire," as he calls them -- and charge them with sowing the seeds of doubt about the legitimate scientists' findings.

"The thing that these groups have in common is that they don't have qualified climate scientists doing climate science and they have a tendency to hide their source of funding," Hoggan says. "So my view is, and what we try to argue in this book, is that we should strip these groups of their right to hide their funding, and so people would know who these groups actually represent."

Hoggan says it's obvious the industry groups have successfully spread their message because media reports legitimize their claims, and because climate change legislation is stalled in both the U.S. and Canada.

"This is serious. If you look at climate mitigation policy in Canada, we don't have one. Essentially Canadian policy would result in an increase in greenhouse gas emissions," Hoggan said.

"So these groups have been highly effective at creating public doubt and taking the pressure off politicians to actually really do something about climate change."

CTV Toronto - Climate change dispute a 'fake debate,' expert says - CTV News, Shows and Sports -- Canadian Television
 

SubMissioN

TRIBE Member
People need science still to prove what? To think that your own instincts or your eyes don't work. You don't need science to prove something that has had an obvious effect. Everybody can tell that the record lows and record highs in temperature during the off season has increased any weather man tell you that. Things obviously haven't been seasonal all year through for a long time now. Increase in Natural disasters, Ocean temperature readings, the melting of glaciers are not a myth. So is the question whether or not global warming had to do with this? or is it rather that it has a part in it? If thats so....then wouldn't the next step be to take immediate action against any possibility of escalating an already escalating situation? I mean wouldn't that be the right thing to do while you figure out the alternative reason or would it be easier for you to null and void the responsibility until its too late? Either way doing nothing and avoiding the situation is much worst.
 

SubMissioN

TRIBE Member
However this month has been seasonal this year....I don't remember it being this seasonal for like 3 years and despite what you might think I know I have a good memory.
 

atbell

TRIBE Member
People need science still to prove what? To think that your own instincts or your eyes don't work. You don't need science to prove something that has had an obvious effect. Everybody can tell that the record lows and record highs in temperature during the off season has increased any weather man tell you that. Things obviously haven't been seasonal all year through for a long time now. Increase in Natural disasters, Ocean temperature readings, the melting of glaciers are not a myth. So is the question whether or not global warming had to do with this? or is it rather that it has a part in it? If thats so....then wouldn't the next step be to take immediate action against any possibility of escalating an already escalating situation? I mean wouldn't that be the right thing to do while you figure out the alternative reason or would it be easier for you to null and void the responsibility until its too late? Either way doing nothing and avoiding the situation is much worst.
Cool, you've been to the north to see the icebergs melting? Or is that just an instinct?

Increases in natural disasters with respect to what? How do you know the Ocean temperatures are going up compared to anything?

Take it easy on Science unless you have some very specific problems. Science is nothing more than a model we've come up with which is very good at explaining the past and predicting the future, that's probably a good place to start cutting up the religion of the lab coated class. For right now it is the best we have though, understand it and don't abuse it, that's the best anyone can do.

Good call on your assesment of the state of research though. I remain completely convinced that the last 200 years have seen global temperature changes which have never been seen before and I'm almost convinced that human activity is unarguably the cause of this change. I remain skeptical about our understanding of the activities we've been doing which have caused this atmospheric change though.
 

AdRiaN

TRIBE Member
Found an interesting article published in the Journal of Non-Equilibrium Thermodynamics (June 2006) on the measurement of global temperature. I copied and pasted the conclusion if you want to skip over all of the fancy-ass science stuff.

Does a Global Temperature Exist?

Conclusion

There is no global temperature. The reasons lie in the properties of the equation of state
governing local thermodynamic equilibrium, and the implications cannot be avoided by substituting
statistics for physics.

Since temperature is an intensive variable, the total temperature is meaningless in terms
of the system being measured, and hence any one simple average has no necessary meaning.
Neither does temperature have a constant proportional relationship with energy or other
extensive thermodynamic properties.

Averages of the Earth’s temperature field are thus devoid of a physical context which
would indicate how they are to be interpreted, or what meaning can be attached to changes
in their levels, up or down. Statistics cannot stand in as a replacement for the missing physics
because data alone are context-free. Assuming a context only leads to paradoxes such as
simultaneous warming and cooling in the same system based on arbitrary choice in some
free parameter. Considering even a restrictive class of admissible coordinate transformations
yields families of averaging rules that likewise generate opposite trends in the same data,
and by implication indicating contradictory rankings of years in terms of warmth.
The physics provides no guidance as to which interpretation of the data is warranted.
Since arbitrary indexes are being used to measure a physically non-existent quantity, it is
not surprising that different formulae yield different results with no apparent way to select among them.

The purpose of this paper was to explain the fundamental meaninglessness of so-called
global temperature data. The problem can be (and has been) happily ignored in the name of
the empirical study of climate. But nature is not obliged to respect our statistical conventions
and conceptual shortcuts. Debates over the levels and trends in so-called global temperatures
will continue interminably, as will disputes over the significance of these things for the human
experience of climate, until some physical basis is established for the meaningful measurement
of climate variables, if indeed that is even possible.

It may happen that one particular average will one day prove to stand out with some
special physical significance. However, that is not so today. The burden rests with those
who calculate these statistics to prove their logic and value in terms of the governing dynamical
equations, let alone the wider, less technical, contexts in which they are commonly
encountered.
 

acheron

TRIBE Member
"Is It Too Late to Prevent Catastrophic Climate Change?"
Lecture to a Meeting of the Royal Society of the Arts
Sydney, October 21, 2009
by Clive Hamilton

"Alarm bells
This paper lays out the latest scientific understanding of the task humanity faces to
avoid catastrophic climate change. One of the most striking features of the global
warming debate has been how, with each advance in climate science, the news keeps
getting worse. Although temporarily slowed by the effects of the 2008 global
financial crisis, the world’s greenhouse-gas emissions have been growing much faster
than predicted in the 1990s. In addition, since 2005 a number of scientific papers have
described the likelihood of the climate system passing significant ‘tipping points’—
small perturbations that cause large changes—beyond which the warming process is
reinforced by positive feedback mechanisms"

... continued (read the pdf - 19 pages)
 

Maui

TRIBE Member
No mention of the Hackers in here?

Squeal for me Alarmists, squeal like the piggies you are!
lol.
 
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