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Coronavirus Pandemic

Stop Bill C-10

alexd

Administrator
Staff member
So they paused AZ in Ontario, leaving nearly a million people who have received 1 dose without any idea what we'll do next. These fuckers are just appalling.
 
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So now we have to deal with Doug Ford trying to overcompensate for his fuck ups and hence why outdoor facilities are closed.

He's now going over and above (unnecessarily) what the science board is telling him, even when they're telling him he doesn't need to add anything additional on.

Fuck this crackheaded dumbfuck
 

Bernnie Federko

TRIBE Member
State of the outbreak: Where the shots are going
150 million vaccine doses were administered globally over the past week, the highest weekly total yet and a jump from 130 million last week.

Breaking it down:

  • In the U.S., daily vaccinations peaked in mid-April and fell sharply as demand waned, though they've ticked up over the past few days (46% of the population has at least one dose).
  • In China, daily vaccinations have more than doubled over the past month and are now on par with the U.S., adjusted for population, though there's still a big gap in the overall vaccination rate. China now accounts for around one-third of every vaccination administered worldwide each day.
  • The EU is now carrying out more daily vaccinations per 100 residents than both the U.S. and China, having shaken off a slow initial rollout (30% have one dose).
  • India's vaccination rate has slowed significantly over the last month due to supply shortfalls (10% have one dose).
  • Russia's domestic rollout is moving remarkably slowly due to a combination of manufacturing issues, widespread hesitancy and an emphasis on exports (9% have one dose).
  • Japan's start has been even slower, due in part to a low sense of urgency, though the numbers have been ticking up over the past few days (3% have one dose).
  • Across Africa, an average of 397,000 doses is being administered per day. At that rate, it would take 11 years for 60% of the continent's population to be fully vaccinated (1% have one dose).
 
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Bernnie Federko

TRIBE Member
Ontario's government has unveiled what it says is a “slow and cautious” plan to reopen the province as COVID-19 recedes, allowing a return to outdoor amenities such as golf courses and tennis courts over the upcoming long weekend and but waiting until mid-June before the resumption of restaurant patios and non-essential shopping, with strict capacity limits.

“While we must remain conscious of the continued threat the virus poses, with millions of Ontarians having received at least their first dose of vaccine we can now begin the process of a slow and cautious re-opening of the province in full consultation with our public health professionals,” Premier Doug Ford said in a press releas

Ontario’s new three-step “Roadmap to Reopen” sets out clear metrics for vaccination rates that are required for each phase of reopening. After hitting each vaccination benchmark, the province would wait at least 21 days before moving on to the next phase. All phases require hospitalizations, intensive-care occupancy and positivity rates to be declining.
The first step, which the province estimates could begin by June 14, requires 60 per cent of adults to be vaccinated with one dose. Ontario has already hit 57.6 per cent of first doses. This phase focuses on low-risk activities, and would allow outdoor gatherings of up to 10 people, outdoor dining of four people per table, outdoor sports of 10 people, essential retail (such as grocery stores) to operate at 25-per-cent capacity, and non-essential retail to reopen to shopping at 15-per-cent capacity. Day camps, campsites, Ontario Parks, and horse and motor racing would also be allowed outdoors, and all construction can open.

The second step, estimated to begin in July, requires 70 per cent of adults to be vaccinated with one dose and 20 per cent to be fully vaccinated. It would allow larger outdoor gatherings of 25 people, larger outdoor religious services, personal care services such as hair and nail salons, outdoor dining for up to six people, overnight camps, amusement and waterparks, fairs and outdoor cinemas.

The third step, estimated in late July or early August, requires 70 to 80 per cent of adults to be vaccinated with one dose and 25 per cent to be fully vaccinated. The final stage would allow for indoor and outdoor gatherings, indoor dining, indoor sports and recreation, and indoor attractions to reopen.

Even before the new steps take effect, the government says that starting at 12:01 a.m. Saturday, outdoor recreation amenities – such as golf course, tennis courts and basketball courts – will be allowed to reopen, but with restrictions. The government has faced widespread criticism for its decision to shut down this kind of outdoor recreation, as most public health experts advised it was much safer than indoor activity.

The province’s current stay-at-home order, which has left restaurants limited to takeout or delivery and non-essential retailers allowed to offer only curbside pickup and delivery, is set to expire June 2.

Earlier Thursday, the province’s independent COVID-19 Science Advisory Table released new modelling showing that case counts would decline much more steeply if the province delays its partial reopening until mid-June.

With a partial reopening beginning June 16, the projections show daily new infections dipping below 1,000 a day just after June 4, followed by a further decline. But with a partial reopening on June 2, the numbers suggest the province would plateau around the 1,000-cases-day level for close to a month before starting to decline again later in June.

Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health, David Williams, has warned that cases need to go “well below” 1,000 a day, and stay there for a sustained period, before the province could relax restrictions.

Adalsteinn (Steini) Brown, the head of the University of Toronto’s school of public health and the co-chair of the science table warned that maintain some public health measures – amid a steady pace of vaccinations – until mid-June would “help ensure a good summer.”

Schools remain closed across the province. Dr. Brown said school reopenings could cause a 6 to 11 per cent increase in cases, but that this could be “manageable.” He also said outdoor activities should be encouraged, the table says, as done safely they are far less likely to cause the virus to spread.

Dr. Williams said he wanted the province to have schools reopened in June, provided public health units can handle contact tracing of any new cases. He said the exact date would depend on discussions with the Ministry of Education.

The science table projections also show the number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care, now at 721, will continue declining and could sink below 500 a day by early June. But Dr. Brown cautioned these numbers could be overly optimistic, as patients in the third wave have tended to spend longer in intensive care. He also cautioned that the projections do not factor in any new variants that prove more contagious or can evade vaccinations.
 

Bernnie Federko

TRIBE Member
Wuhan mystery: New doubts on virus origin

"Three researchers from China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology became sick enough in November 2019 that they sought hospital care," The Wall Street Journal reports from previously undisclosed U.S. intelligence.

  • Why it matters: The new reporting "could add weight to growing calls for a fuller probe of whether the Covid-19 virus may have escaped from the laboratory."
In a letter published in the journal Science, leading researchers called last week for a renewed investigation of COVID origins.

Fauci doubts: "No, I am not convinced about that," Anthony Fauci said at a PolitiFact event this month when asked if he was confident COVID developed naturally.

  • "I think we should continue to investigate what went on in China until we continue to find out to the best of our ability what happened."
 

praktik

TRIBE Member

No kidding - our 2nd dose is way behind the US too. Michigan is @ close to half of all adults with 2nd dose.

We're still single digits or only just outta single digits on 2nd dose...

That said we will all reap benefits from lots of us getting our first - just hearing about first-dosers in ICUs currently of all ages - not out of the woods yet!
 
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praktik

TRIBE Member
Wuhan mystery: New doubts on virus origin

"Three researchers from China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology became sick enough in November 2019 that they sought hospital care," The Wall Street Journal reports from previously undisclosed U.S. intelligence.

  • Why it matters: The new reporting "could add weight to growing calls for a fuller probe of whether the Covid-19 virus may have escaped from the laboratory."
In a letter published in the journal Science, leading researchers called last week for a renewed investigation of COVID origins.

Fauci doubts: "No, I am not convinced about that," Anthony Fauci said at a PolitiFact event this month when asked if he was confident COVID developed naturally.

  • "I think we should continue to investigate what went on in China until we continue to find out to the best of our ability what happened."

Still - lab origins ARE the "least likely" explanations of the origins of COVID-19. Still - it's non-zero, it could be!


There's a lot of questions on what KIND of lab origin too - like accidental vs "planned manipulation" - but all of that is still LESS likely than zoonotic. There's some research pointing in both directions though, but the weight of evidence is behind a zoonotic explanation:

"Through their direct investigation and review of the published literature, the WHO team considered four possible sources for COVID-19 and the likelihood of each:

  • direct zoonotic spillover is considered to be a possible-to-likely pathway;
  • introduction through an intermediate host is considered to be a likely to very likely pathway;
  • introduction through cold/food chain products is considered a possible pathway;
  • introduction through a laboratory incident was considered to be an extremely unlikely pathway
Of course, the “extremely unlikely pathway” of a lab accident has received a lot of media attention, which is understandable. The investigators could not rule out a lab origin, but there was no direct evidence for it, and the totality of evidence from epidemiology and molecular biology make it the least likely scenario. The joint WHO-China findings have received some international criticism. In a joint statement of 14 countries, including the US, the WHO and China were urged to provide full transparency, and criticized the mission for: “significantly delayed and lacked access to complete, original data and samples”.

This leaves the door open that China was hiding data that may have pointed to a lab origin for SARS-CoV-2. Many have pointed to the Wuhan Institute for Virology, which is the world’s expert on bat-derived coronaviruses. This may seem like a coincidence, but it is not surprising that a research lab will exist in a part of the world where such viruses exist. In other words, both the location of the lab and the COVID-19 outbreak may be related to the fact that zoonotic coronaviruses are endemic to the region. But still, the coincidence is noted.

Examinations of the virus itself have not revealed any smoking gun of genetic manipulation. But results have been conflicting about the potential for a lab origin. Some published studies have concluded that the virus is incompatible with a lab origin. Other studies conclude that genetic manipulation cannot be ruled out. This is why many pinned hopes on the WHO team to resolve the debate, which they did not do definitively. For now we will have to be content with “extremely unlikely”, and continue for calls for fuller, more transparent research to finally put the question to bed.

All of this matters for various reasons. Experts are already warning that pandemics like COVID-19 are likely going to be more common going forward. The world is much more interconnected than ever before, we are living closer to natural habitats (some might say invading), and there is a global trade in animals parts. All of these factors conspire to make the occurrence and spread of zoonotic infections, including developing into full-blown pandemics, more likely. COVID-19 is far from the most deadly disease out there, and this pandemic is likely a dress-rehearsal for worse pandemics to come."
 

praktik

TRIBE Member

COVID Morbidity​

The emerging burden of long COVID is significant, and needs to be considered when evaluating the risk vs benefit of pandemic measures.
Steven Novella on May 26, 2021

There is a known bias toward oversimplification. We like to distill complex situations down to a number, or a simple dichotomy. It allows us to mentally manage a complex world. The risk, of course, is that important details will be lost. In medicine that bias is hopefully beaten out of us by training and experience. We learn to embrace the complexity, but still we must be vigilant.

When evaluating the COVID-19 pandemic, reporting has focused almost exclusively on two numbers – the numbers of cases and the number of deaths. Many news outlets explicitly track those two numbers, with graphs and statistics. It has been a useful marker to follow the course of the pandemic. But that should not lull us into thinking these two numbers are all that matter when evaluating the total burden of this pandemic. Now that we have had more than a year of experience with COVID-19 researchers are increasingly tracking morbidity from the disease – health effects in those who survived. In short, death is not the only negative health outcome from contracting COVID.

A recent study published in PM&R looked patient records for those discharged from hospital between March and April 2020. Arguably, medical care improved throughout the pandemic as doctors gained more experience and research provided new tools. The case-fatality rate decreased over time. More updated numbers would therefore be interesting, but this does give us a glimpse at the potential morbidity of COVID. They found:
Nearly twenty percent of COVID-19 survivors discharged to a location other than their home. Forty-five percent of survivors experienced functional decline impacting their discharge. Eighty-seven (80.6%) of survivors who showed functional change during hospitalization were referred for additional therapy at discharge.
Nearly half of patients had a functional decline from their baseline. As many of these patients were older, especially early on in the pandemic, recovery was likely slow and incomplete. Another recent study published in BMJ Open looked at so-called “long COVID” – following patients for an average of 12.8 weeks after diagnosis. They found:
81.1% (596/735) reported pain and discomfort, 79.5% (584/735) problems with usual activities, 68.7% (505/735) anxiety and depression and 56.2% (413/735) problems with mobility.
This is an enormous burden, and the study documents that this affects not only the patients but their families and caregivers.

Anecdotally, as a neurologist who does not care for acute COVID illness itself but is referred patients with neurological complications and symptoms, I started seeing patients with neurological symptoms following COVID about six months into the pandemic. These numbers have steadily increased. Common complications include chronic headache and fatigue, mental fogginess, and chronic pain.

The numbers above and my experience are consistent with other published data. An Italian study, for example, found that 44% of patients had chronic symptoms of “fatigue, shortness of breath, joint pain, and chest pain, in that order”. Symptoms last for weeks or months after initial infection, and long after symptoms of acute illness, like fever, have resolved.

As we have learned more about COVID-19 these long term symptoms make sense. Originally we thought of COVID as a respiratory illness, because it presents with fever and cough. But in reality we have learned that it is also, or perhaps more so, a vascular illness. SARS-CoV-2 gets entry into cells by binding its spike protein to the ACE2 receptor – but these receptors are not found only on respiratory cells, they are widely distributed throughout the body and in many organs. This creates the potential for widespread effects of the infection, but the vascular effects appear to be dominant.

The virus attaches to blood vessels that line various organs and will also cause widespread inflammation and blood clots. The more severe the illness, of course, the more severe these effects can be, and the greater the morbidity. But even people with mild disease can have lingering symptoms.

There are at least 167 million cases of COVID so far worldwide, 33 million in the US. The health burden of long COVID is therefore potentially huge. When calculating the health cost of this pandemic, we cannot only count lives lost but also the reduce health of survivors. The death rate itself is staggering – almost 3.5 million worldwide and almost 600k in the US. This is not a “bad flu” even if just looking at the mortality numbers. But when we add the long COVID cases, the true size of the health burden becomes clearer.

This is an important point to drive home as we also, individually and collectively, calculate the risk vs. benefit of the various COVID vaccines. The vaccines currently being distributed have been proven safe and effective. As a public health measure, they are a clear home-run – extremely cost effective. When we add the emerging burden of long COVID or post-COVID disability, the benefits are even greater.

COVID morbidity needs to be part of any conversation about the risk and cost vs. benefit of any measures we contemplate to mitigate this pandemic.

 
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Bernnie Federko

TRIBE Member
Biden wants a report on whether US intelligence thinks COVID-19 escaped from the lab.


 

praktik

TRIBE Member
Biden wants a report on whether US intelligence thinks COVID-19 escaped from the lab.


Ya he already got one and didn't like that was "inconclusive"
 

Bernnie Federko

TRIBE Member
Biden ordered the U.S. intelligence community on Wednesday to "redouble their efforts" to determine whether COVID-19 first emerged from a laboratory in Wuhan or through animal-to-human transmission.

Flashback: The "lab leak" theory was initially dismissed by most scientists and public health officials and spread mainly by some of China's loudest critics, including President Trump. Many media outlets steered clear, and it faded into the background of the COVID-19 debate.

Now, everyone from Biden to 18 leading biologists (writing in Science) to Anthony Fauci to WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has called for further investigation.

  • One reason is that no conclusive evidence has emerged for the animal spillover hypothesis, which had long been regarded by most scientists as the most likely explanation. It can take years to trace a virus back to an animal source.
  • Another related reasonis China's stonewalling of any thorough investigation — a characteristic response from Beijing that has nonetheless fueled suspicions that the government has something to hide.
    • The outright dismissal of the lab theory in the report following a WHO investigation that was tightly controlled by China only fueled those suspicions further (particularly as the report took seriously the bizarre theory that the virus was imported in frozen food).
  • Then there's the drumbeat of circumstantial news reports like the one from WSJ about workers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology falling ill in November 2019.
  • There's also the history: "scientists now believe that the H1N1 seasonal flu that killed thousands every year from 1977 to 2009 was influenza research gone feral," writes Donald McNeil, formerly the NYT's lead reporter on the pandemic and a recent convert to the lab leak theory.

The bottom line: We may never know how a pandemic that has killed at least 3.5 million people and thrown perhaps 115 million more into poverty began. Many scientists continue to point to animal spillover. But the lab leak theory has officially gone mainstream.
 
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