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Coronavirus outbreak tracker

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Staff member
I have a few errands to run downtown today and tomorrow and I'm not looking forward to it. After that I will stay very close to home. I am in the target demographic after all, in spite of still feeling like a 19 year old raver.


TRIBE Member
Trump’s Botched Coronavirus SpeechShutterstock/Joseph Sohm

The president’s speech on the outbreak last night went over like a lead balloon. The new 30-day ban on travel from some parts of Europe took our allies completely by surprise, because they had not been consulted about it at all:
European officials strongly condemned President Trump’s decision to severely restrict travel from Europe to the United States on Thursday, a sudden move that took them by surprise and that many saw as politically motivated.
Of all the slights between Washington and Europe in recent years, the new travel restrictions represented a blow an order of magnitude beyond previous disputes. In a short statement on Thursday morning rare in its directness, the European Union expressed only exasperation.
It is not the most urgent problem right now, but once the outbreak is over our allies are going to remember how our government treated them in the middle of a pandemic. Instead of the solidarity and cooperation that one would expect between allies, they get a gratuitous travel ban.
Trump also botched his explanation of the details of his own policy, which created panic among Americans still in Europe who thought that they might be cut off from coming home. That isn’t the case, but that didn’t stop a run on last-minute airline tickets because Americans thought that they had just a couple days to get out:

Markets also tanked because the president initially said that the ban would also apply to goods as well as people:

There will be exemptions for Americans who have undergone appropriate screenings, and these prohibitions will not only apply to the tremendous amount of trade and cargo, but various other things as we get approval. Anything coming from Europe to the United States is what we are discussing.
Administration officials had to issue multiple clarifications to reassure the public that the president had not meant what he had just told us. It turns out that “Europe” only refers to people who have been in Schengen zone nations, and it doesn’t apply to goods at all. The U.K. was exempted, which makes the targeting of the ban seem driven by political bias more than anything else. That was not lost on European leaders:
Many policymakers said Thursday that the fact that the travel ban excludes Britain, where coronavirus is already spreading, but which is led by a populist leader who has sought to build ties to Trump, was a sign that the ban was political rather than driven by science.

When officials have to contradict the president’s message within hours of the speech because the president gave out bad information, it defeats the point of delivering an address to the nation. As is often the case with this president, it would have been better if he had said nothing.

The multiple failures to communicate the policy clearly were nothing compared to the uselessness of a travel ban at this point in the outbreak. The virus is already here and spreading mostly undetected, and barring some Europeans from coming here won’t do anything to stop that. In addition to inflicting more economic damage on our allies, a new travel ban is mostly useless at best and it is much more likely to be a harmful distraction from what needs to be done. A former Homeland Security Advisor to Trump commented on this earlier this morning:

One of the biggest errors in the speech was Trump’s unjustified boasting that “no nation is more prepared” than the U.S. when it seems clear that we are still shockingly unprepared. Jeremy Konyndyk was disgusted by what he heard:

The president barely addressed the question of testing, and what he did say wasn’t accurate. All that he said about that was this:

Testing and testing capabilities are expanding rapidly, day by day. We are moving very quickly.

That would be excellent news if it were true, but this is another case of the president misleading the public to believe that things are better than they are. In fact, it remains very difficult for people to get tested here.

The U.S. has the lowest per capita testing of any country. South Korea appears to have gotten their outbreak under control for now, but the U.S. is lagging far behind them when it comes to testing:

South Korea’s testing total so far, when broken down into number of tests performed per million citizens, seems to be about 700 times as high than the US’s.

Now it appears that our labs are running out of the raw materials needed to conduct the tests:

A looming shortage in lab materials is threatening to delay coronavirus test results and cause officials to undercount the number of Americans with the virus.

The slow pace of coronavirus testing has created a major gap in the U.S. public health response. The latest problem involves an inability to prepare samples for testing, creating uncertainties in how long it will take to get results.

CDC Director Robert Redfield told POLITICO on Tuesday that he is not confident that U.S. labs have an adequate stock of the supplies used to extract genetic material from any virus in a patient’s sample — a critical step in coronavirus testing.

So testing is not “expanding rapidly” and the U.S. is not “moving very quickly.” Testing may be expanding, but it is not nearly widespread enough and it is not happening as quickly as needed.

The president’s speech was a political and substantive failure. We should just tune out the noise coming from the White House and pay attention to what health officials and medical professionals have to tell us instead. Dr. Scott Gottlieb outlined what Americans need to start doing immediately in this thread:

The cancellation of large events is an important start, but he also urges everyone to stop attending small gatherings as well:

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TRIBE Member
Can’t wait to get TF out of here and go quarantine on the beach. I just hope they don’t close YYZ before my flight. We all might get it, due to exposure. I’m not gonna die from it. I’d also rather have it there than here.

...and the selfishness and ignorance of the stock-piling I’m seeing is disgusting. Fucking bottled water and toilet paper? Seriously? Wipe your ass with a rag, or better yet - get a bidet.

People are acting like a bunch of half-baked clowns.

Bernnie Federko

TRIBE Member
Goldman Sachs note:

From Goldman Sachs
Date: March 15, 2020 at 9:42:49 AM EDT
Subject: GS Call

Conclusions of Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in.
The key economic takeaways were:

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.

Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.

Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.

Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.

There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like ‪9/11 than it does like 2008.
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Bernnie Federko

TRIBE Member
1% of GDP. This is what forecasts called for...

Ottawa to unveil nearly $30-billion economic aid package

Ottawa will unveil nearly $30-billion of emergency financial aid on Wednesday to help struggling Canadians and businesses cope with the economic fallout from the new coronavirus crisis, sources say.

The package will include immediate financial relief, but part of the almost $30-billion will be set aside to boost the economy toward the end of the crisis, insiders say. Further measures are also planned to target hard-hit sectors of the economy in the coming weeks, the sources said.

In addition, late Tuesday, Canada’s six largest banks announced that hard-hit customers will be allowed to defer mortgage payments by up to six months, as part of a co-ordinated relief effort by the banking sector.

In a joint statement Tuesday evening, all of the Big Six banks said they would provide “flexible solutions,” on a case-by-case basis, for people facing pay loss, additional child-care burdens or illness due to COVID-19.

Canadian companies say they need immediate and direct help from the federal government’s economic stimulus package if they are to survive the severe downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

With each day, more companies are shuttering their doors – either because of government directives or their own precautions – to reduce the spread of the virus. The resulting situation is virtually without precedent as some companies see their revenues halt in an instant, and for an unknown period.

The Canadian economy is set to shrink dramatically, and many forecasters expect a second-quarter contraction that approaches or exceeds the worst results from the financial crisis of 2008-09, making the road to recovery even steeper.

The federal government is in discussions with Canadian manufacturers on how they could step in to fill critical shortages of medical supplies needed to fight the coronavirus, including the possibility of switching over their production lines from goods such as auto parts.

Canada and the United States will announce a deal to partially close the border on Wednesday, while allowing trade and commerce to continue, sources say. To stem the spread of COVID-19, the two countries are finalizing a deal to close the border to non-essential travel.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford has declared a state of emergency in the province that bans organized public events of more than 50 people and compels bars and restaurants to close. Alberta has also declared a state of emergency. And British Columbia has declared a public health emergency after reporting new COVID-19 deaths on Tuesday.

The organizers of a dental conference at the Vancouver Convention Centre that’s blamed for a “significant” number of new coronavirus transmissions say they had consulted with health officials prior to the event and were given a green light to proceed.

B.C. Provincial Health Officer Bonnie Henry said this week that at least four recent confirmed cases, and possibly more, are linked to the conference and that all attendees should self-isolate immediately, until March 22. An estimated 15,000 people attended the conference at the Vancouver Convention Centre on March 5 through 7.

The spread of the coronavirus has stranded a rapidly growing number of Canadian travellers as the combination of sudden border closings, cancelled flights and shrinking airline networks erase options for getting home. The largest and youngest group, 17 members of a Toronto judo team, saw their trip to Ukraine spiral from disappointment to bewilderment, with the team of 12- to 15-year-olds stuck in a faraway hotel.
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Bernnie Federko

TRIBE Member
Status of cases in Ontario
This web page will be updated with the most up-to-date information on the status of cases in Ontario, every day, seven days a week, at 10:30 a.m. and 5:30 p.m. ET.
Currently under investigation23378
Confirmed positive3208
Total number of patients approved for COVID-19 testing to date13897


TRIBE Member
There are pallets of cash being made off of this. You wanna know who the pricks are? I’ll say it again -

Follow the money.
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