Some Bear market analysis from one of the Guys Upstairs... (Not posting the graph, sorry)
TSX Down-Cycle Counts
Duration of a bear market in Canada
Some of you were wondering as to how long bear-markets last in Canada.
First of all, my quick answer would be that our bear is aged (15 months old)…
The following table is our data-series dating back to 1929
· We are measuring the age of the bear (for TSX) from the month of the peak thru to the month of the trough with the 20%+ decline qualifier
· Note that for the purpose of this study we are not using intraday levels, rather, end of day or closing levels.
The following historical bear-market observations show that, on average, a Cdn bear lives for about 19 months – the current bear is roughly 15 months old. In other words, the bear that everyone is talking about is aged.