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Brexit

Discussion in 'TRIBE Main Forum' started by Special K, Jun 23, 2016.

  1. Pyrovitae

    Pyrovitae TRIBE Member

    Scotland would still have to declare independence and prove its finances are in order before applying to accession to the EU.

    Membership may be fast tracked for Scotland (not impossible,) but it would still take time and would only be accepted if all the other member states agreed to it. As a punitive measure to the UK they may but with everything else with Brexit - everything is speculation.
     
  2. Pyrovitae

    Pyrovitae TRIBE Member

    Hey KlubmastA! I'm well aside from this shitshow which has worrying implications for me and mine. I've been following the news obsessively (and I mean ALL the papers, Sun, Guardian, Daily Mail, Independent, Telegraph,) and this may be naivete but I'm still hoping the decision will somehow be reversed. The referendum is not legally binding, doesn't have the full support of the union, could be overturned by a majority of MPs in parliament or a general election...Cameron said he would trigger article 50 immediately but now everyone seems hesitant to do so, even BoJo.

    Anyway, how is everyone else?
     
  3. stargurl*

    stargurl* TRIBE Member

    I'm doing well, April marked a decade in Europe and I've also racked up husband / kid / Belgian citizenship / local BSW degree / career / house (in that order ;)) Congrats on the house and the kids, btw!
     
  4. praktik

    praktik TRIBE Member

  5. praktik

    praktik TRIBE Member

  6. Bass-Invader

    Bass-Invader TRIBE Member

    Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the opposition Labour party, lost a vote of confidence to remain as party leader 172/40.

    The long knives are out.
     
  7. Bass-Invader

    Bass-Invader TRIBE Member

    Also that rolling stone article is horseshit. He paints out some arguments that warn against unfettered faith in democracy as a cure-all for everything, and then his counter-argument consists of nothing more than than declaring: 'obviously we should be moving towards more not less democracy'. Way to engage.
     
  8. praktik

    praktik TRIBE Member

    meh - to each his own.

    I think there's a useful corrective there, which the Larison "Elite Failure" piece goes on to elucidate quite well.
     
  9. Klubmasta Will

    Klubmasta Will TRIBE Member

  10. basketballjones

    basketballjones TRIBE Member

  11. Bass-Invader

    Bass-Invader TRIBE Member

    if there was an argument to be made in that article, it was omitted.
     
  12. Pyrovitae

    Pyrovitae TRIBE Member

    Wow, time flies. Congrats to you too :)
     
  13. Pyrovitae

    Pyrovitae TRIBE Member

    Valid points, but he lost me when he said this:
    Michael Gove is a vile man, deriding 'experts' and their 'opinions'. As minister of the department of education he refused to consult teachers or anyone actually in education and instead referred to the educational establishment as 'the blob' which needed to be defeated. The man is a pigheaded, belligerent troglydyte.

    http://http://indy100.independent.co.uk/article/sarah-vine-is-married-to-michael-gove-she-just-asked-experts-to-help-the-country--bJFSzhkyrW
     
  14. Special K

    Special K TRIBE Member

  15. Littlest Hobo

    Littlest Hobo TRIBE Member

    "the desire to work in Milan or Madrid and feel cosmopolitan."

    This seems to be the prevailing, strongest argument from Bremainers I know, especially expats living in the UK. I get that is is awesome to be able to freely live and travel through Europe but it is odd that the main reason for UK to remain is their ability to leave.

    On another note, the markets seem to have stabilized. Petulant bankers acting like bankers.

    Young people simply did not vote. It's not as glamourous as a 'like' or a hashtag/retweet, so they can cram it with walnuts.

    No one is talking about the below:

    [​IMG]

    Urban centres vote remain, others vote stay. We saw it with the Quebec referendum, the Toronto elections, the federal election. People in cities vote different than people who don't live in cities. It's great that a young person has a promising career in London and perhaps move to Berlin for awhile, holiday in Spain etc but if you are the child of a miner who doesn't have the same prospects than your worldview is different.

    John Oliver is a wanker.
     
  16. Polymorph

    Polymorph TRIBE Member

    yeah, but what future prospects does some child of a Miner have under the Brexit, besides the opportunity to ride around in a beat up pick up truck for a couple days singing "We Are The Champions". :rolleyes:

    And then realize that new *austerity measures* that will invariably kick in will most likely affect these poorest, working class regions first.

    Good job, ignorant hicks
     
  17. Bass-Invader

    Bass-Invader TRIBE Member

    That isn't the prevailing strongest argument. The strongest argument is having access to the single market, with the ability to set and vote on the laws that set that market. Brexit means that we will have to adhere to the rules of the single market, without being able to vote on it. Leaving literally carries no benefits at all unless we somehow conclude ultra-favourable trade deals with the rest of the world (we won't.)

    Markets have only stabilised because it has been made clear that the official exit process will be in abeyance until September. Once actual exit becomes imminent, everything will go bonkers again. In the meantime companies that have Brexit risk exposure will be using the time to quietly plann exit strategies from the UK.


    Actually everyone in the UK is talking about exactly this.
     
  18. praktik

    praktik TRIBE Member

    I like how the EU has become a proxy for "something bankers and globalists love", as if the EU is like NAFTA or the TPP but for Europe.

    You can see it in formulations all over the place, but I think it's a category error people here in NA are likely to make where "globalization" means "trade agreements for bankers"


    The EU is so much more than that, and has so many more stakeholder interests protected and promoted, including democratic mechanisms, labour and environmental rights our North American arrangements have excluded.

    The EU cannot be understood simply as a "tool for the banking elite"
     
  19. ndrwrld

    ndrwrld TRIBE Member

  20. praktik

    praktik TRIBE Member

    Britain: An Economy on the Brink

    There now seem to be three possible outcomes for the Brexit negotiations. In the first, Prime Minister May continues to seek an agreement tilted in favor of Britain and the negotiations likely come to a bad end before the two years are up. In this case, the UK runs a high risk of leaving the EU without any agreement on their future trading relationship, with little or nothing to show for Dr. Fox’s travels, and with severe damage to the UK economy.

    The second possibility is that May comes to see the folly of her present course, and follows the pragmatic Swiss in negotiating compromises with the EU on immigration and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. She could then secure a final deal with the EU that would almost certainly not be as good as the UK’s current arrangement, but that might not be too much worse, and with damage to the UK economy that could perhaps in time be remedied. But this would require May to show a degree of fortitude in standing up to the Brexit jusqu’au-boutistes in her party, and to the Europhobe London press, which on recent evidence is well beyond her.

    The third possibility is that, as the negotiations go badly, and as the ruinous consequences of May’s Brexit economics make themselves felt, the British will recoil from the whole process. Their change of heart would show up in collapsing support for Brexit in the polls, leading to special elections in which May and her party would incur big losses. May now rules in the House of Commons with an iron hand, but that could change very quickly once she and her policies are seen to be wrecking the British economy and dragging down the Conservative Party.

    If May falls, a possible successor is George Osborne, the long-serving chancellor of the exchequer (finance minister) in David Cameron’s government who opposed Brexit and was excluded by May from her government with a deliberate rudeness. Osborne’s succession seems unlikely in the present situation because, although still a member of the British parliament, he is now in the political wilderness and has just become editor of the Russian-owned London Evening Standard. But Osborne is one of very few senior conservatives untainted by May’s folly, and, if and when she falls, he is as well placed as anyone to take over. If he does, his best course would be to abandon the disastrous Brexit project altogether, and ask the British people in a second referendum whether divorce from the Europe, with its crippling costs, is really what they want.​
     
  21. praktik

    praktik TRIBE Member

  22. praktik

    praktik TRIBE Member

    May’s Election Gamble Seems to Be Backfiring
    Posted on May 26, 2017, 6:14 PM Daniel Larison
    [​IMG]
    Frederic Legrand – COMEO / Shutterstock.com
    Theresa May’s election gamble does not seem to be paying off:

    Theresa May risks being ousted from Downing Street after a shock new poll suggests Labour could be on course to cut her majority down to just two seats.

    The YouGov poll for the Times found that the Conservatives are on 43%, just five points ahead of Labour on 38%.

    At the start of the election campaign, some polls had the Tories with leads of more than 20 points.​

    When May called a snap election last month, it seemed almost impossible that her party would lose seats. The prime minister assumed, and most observers agreed, that she was positioned to increase the Tory majority in the House of Commons by dozens of seats. There was talk of a landslide on par with the largest Thatcher and Blair victories. It was taken for granted that Labour was on track for the worst drubbing in modern history. While I thought there was a real danger that calling an election would backfire on May, especially when she had repeatedly said there would be no early election, I still didn’t guess that it would blow up in her face as spectacularly as it seems to have done.

    If there are no large Tory gains next month, the decision to call the election will go down as another unforced error by a Conservative leader. Because the opposition has generally been perceived to be so hopeless, a failure to beat them by a wide margin is likely to be seen as a serious rebuke to May’s leadership. If there is a reduced majority, May’s authority will be shot. In the still unlikely event that her party is voted out, she will become the biggest joke of a Conservative leader since, well, David Cameron.

    Thus far, the election campaign has helped improve the favorability ratings of both Labour and Jeremy Corbyn and has had the opposite effect on May and the Conservatives. An election that almost everyone thought to be in the bag now seems to be slipping out of May’s grasp. Fraser Nelson wonders if May and the Tories will blow it. May has been dogged lately by a series of sudden reversals, including the original decision to call the election after swearing she wouldn’t:

    The public like her style, but her shambolic U-turn over the so-called ‘dementia tax’ has given everyone cause to doubt whether she is as ‘strong and stable’ as she says she is. In fact, she can look indecisive and a bit dozy. She repeatedly promised us that she would not hold a general election, but then did. She made National Insurance increases the cornerstone of her first Budget, only to abandon the idea days later when she worked out that it violated her manifesto pledge. And she made the abolition of the cap on care home fees the single most significant announcement of her manifesto launch, then abandoned that as well when working out that critics would lampoon it as a ‘dementia tax’.​

    For his part, Rod Liddle dubs the Conservative campaign to be the worst general election effort on their part that he can recall. As he puts it:

    I don’t think anything quite matches up to this combination of prize gaffes and the robotic incantation of platitudinous idiocies.​

    Liddle goes on to say that it is the decision to have an early election that could be a significant factor in turning people against the governing party:

    First, the election was not wanted and is deeply resented beyond the Westminster bubble. The only people who actually enjoy elections are journos and the politically active: that leaves 97 per cent of the population who are somewhat averse, especially after a bruising referendum last year. May is resented for having foisted the election upon us, and people may be inclined to punish her for it, either by staying at home or voting against.​

    I thought that might be the reaction, and it wouldn’t surprise me if that is what is happening now. As I said last month:

    May’s decision to call for a new election is the act of a supremely confident (possibly overconfident) leader, but if there’s one thing she ought to have learned from her predecessor it is that voters have an odd habit of not cooperating with a politician’s plans.​

    That there is now even slightly serious talk of a possible Corbyn victory shows how mistaken May was to gamble on an early election. Her party may still be in power after the vote, but her authority will likely be weakened and her judgment will be called into question.
     
  23. Moez

    Moez TRIBE Member

    late to the party, but this is total bullshit.
     
    Littlest Hobo and janiecakes like this.
  24. janiecakes

    janiecakes TRIBE Member

    LOL <3
     
    Littlest Hobo likes this.

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