• Hi Guest: Welcome to TRIBE, Toronto's largest and longest running online community. If you'd like to post here, or reply to existing posts on TRIBE, you first have to register on the forum. You can register with your facebook ID or with an email address. Join us!

Brexit

mandapanda

TRIBE Member
I honestly don't know a single UK resident that wanted the Leave, nor even thought it would happen.
Right? Everyone I know over there seems pretty devastated. I'm pretty shocked that leave actually won.
And 75% of 18-24 year olds voted to stay. Nice one, boomers. :rolleyes:

If this really is all about immigration, the world is a grosser place than I already thought.
 

Bernnie Federko

TRIBE Member
CIBC Capital Markets

Macro Strategy Research



Brexit: Where do we go from here? (CIBC Capital Markets)





The unthinkable has happened. Below are some of our observations on the Strategy side:



– PM Cameron will resign sometime on Friday and effectively will become a caretaker PM until a new Prime Minister is in place (likely by the Conservative party conference at the start of October).

– Markets have proved to be relieved that PM Cameron has not immediately triggered ‘Article 50’ of the Lisbon treaty which would begin the two-year window to negotiate its exit from the EU. Cameron has left that decision to the new PM, allowing a pause for breath in terms of policy direction.

– Given that Scotland voted in favour of ‘Remain’, risks of another Scottish referendum have risen significantly.

– There is a G7 finance ministers call sometime in the early North America morning.



Implications for markets



– Unquestionably, this is bad for markets and qualifies as a potential global deflationary and growth shock.

– Expect the GBP to depreciate by 15-20% over the coming months. The UK’s large current account deficit and balance sheet are indicators of how vulnerable it is to foreign capital flight. Capital flight is likely to be a symptom of upcoming uncertainty and points to the need for further GBP depreciation in the coming months.



– UK likely to enter into a recession. We can safely assume investment decisions will be delayed along with consumer spending. Even a temporary suspension of consumer spending will materially impact growth expectations. The UK real estate market also looks acutely vulnerable to a collapse in confidence.



– What will the BoE do? Expect to see the Bank of England inject liquidity into the system, perhaps in part by attempting to shore up confidence via maintaining ample credit. The Bank of England could interpret outflows as creating a recession and thereby meriting a rate cut, but that would further highlight signs of panic at this point and as a result, we see them holding off for now



– EUR likely to fall. The integrity of the European project is potentially damaged by the result and risks of other European nations demanding referendums will rise. The Spanish election on Sunday is now very important to monitor. We expect to see EUR/USD decline by a further 6-7% over the coming months.



– How about the Fed? We can effectively forget about the Fed raising rates for now. The trade-weighted USD is now likely to see gains from safe haven bids which compound the inflation problem for the Federal Reserve.



– Reactions from other central banks. The Swiss National Bank did intervene in the overnight session to stabilize the CHF, but we have yet to hear if that is something the Bank of Japan/MoF is looking at now. There is a risk of coordinated intervention following the G7 call this morning.



– Commodities will be on the defensive. Broad USD strength and global growth risks will negatively impact oil prices and it could be a much longer horizon before the market is able to refocus back on supply/demand fundamentals.



– There will be pain for commodity currencies, including the CAD. We anticipate that USD/CAD could appreciate by another 5-6% from here over the coming months.



– Global equities –Equity market were very complacent going into the referendum so they will need to re-price. Expect a massive exodus away from European equities into North American and emerging market equities, with precious metals exporters most likely to outperform.



– For Emerging Markets



o Our medium-term watch points for EM economies and currencies will be the already perilous state of external demand, and of attitudes of portfolio investors to the region.

o We continue to look for modest to moderate trade-weighted depreciation of Asian currencies over coming months including CNY and CNH.

o Given USD strength, we expect USD/LATAM pairs to jump at the open



– For credit. Given the rally in credit spreads in the last five days that priced in a Remain win, we expect a give-back today – in fact, it has already started. ‎ Our yardstick, CDX IG spread, is pushing towards 90bps from the 76bps close on Thursday. At that level, we think some consolidation is possible as the market evaluates the fallout of today's vote. The market will need more time to assess potential damage to global credit fundamentals in the medium term. We keep our eyes on 115bps as a potential next target for the IG index if the market sentiment deteriorates further over the next days.
 

Littlest Hobo

TRIBE Member
Both sides had compelling reasons. I thought Remain would have won.

Based on what I have read young voter turnout was low despite the significance of this event, and may have been a deciding factor on the very slim win margin. Low voter turnout by young people happens in Canada as well. I have never missed an election, shame on them.

It's amazing how leftists have become globalists. When the banksters and globalists tell you to do something, considering the opposite is not a bad idea.

Constantly telling someone they are racist and xenophobic for very valid concerns with immigration and economic policies and national sovereignty does not work like it used to, because it is 2016 and computers exist and can communicate with like minded people. It has the opposite effect.

If there was North American Union I certainly would not want economic and immigration policies set by an unelected bureaucracy in Tegucigalpa, Nezahualcóyotl or San Jose (cities similar in population to Brussells).
 

praktik

TRIBE Member
The EU bureacracy is elected - so there's that.

NAFTA is not a legislative body, has no elected members.

A supra-national body among America/Canada/Mexico that can legislate has never been on the table and won't ever be - but I think a North American Union to which we sent elected representatives is a different thing than some imagined "dictatorship of the bureaucracy" that had no elected component such as you imagine in a Nightmare "NAU" that is "unelected".
 

praktik

TRIBE Member
If members don't pass their proposals in elected parliament, nothing happens
 
Last edited:

praktik

TRIBE Member
There are many more divergences than there are similarities between the EC and the TTC/LCBO, but if there was someone assembling a trite column about the shackling of man under feckless bureaucracy then they could make very breezy comparisons about these entities. These would tell us more about the ideology of the speaker than they would about the nature of the ECs role in the context of the EU, very little of which relates to the LCBO
 

Bass-Invader

TRIBE Member
1. The EU is run by 3 institutions.
The Parliament whose members are directly elected by the citizens of the Member States.

The Council whose members are the heads of state (meaning prime ministers not queens) of each nation.

The Commission who are appointed by the council, and can be dissolved by the council.

It is only 'run by a commission' in the sense that governments appoint servants to run the day-to-day work of government all the time. The commission bows to the other institutions.

2. There are no concerns that would make a Brexit vote valid.

3. Scotland is absolutely leaving. I'm not sure if they will wait until Section 50 is invoked or after, but Sturgeon has already said another referendum is coming, and has rightly justified doing so. I was vehemently against Scotland leaving during the first referendum. I would support them leaving now.

I'm not sure what Northern Ireland will do. I suspect separation and reunification. Even the larger unionist parties supported remain, and Sinn Fein has already called for a referendum.


5. Europe will take semi-punitive measures in response. They have to. A painless brexit would ensure other referendums will follow. They will ensure it will not be painless.

6. British ministers and comissioners will be removed from their committee competencies (since it would be a conflict of interest to have a brit negotiating brexit from the EU side). Already happening. We will be removed from the single market as soon as legally tenable, and only allowed back in if we essentially accept all the powers we currently give to the EU basically remaining with them.

7. Banks and other mobile businesses will seriously consider re-headquartering. Frankfurt and Paris will provide massive incentives for them to do so.

8. Nobody will accept that their vote caused any of this. Once the economic suffering begins, they will find a scapegoat. It will be grim.
 

wickedken

TRIBE Member
I've also heard this morning on the news that a lot of this also had to do with immigration and the whole notion of not wanting more non-whites entering their country. Sad if that was truly one of the motivating factors for the older generation who were mostly the ones that wanted out.

Lobo
It's interesting that this could be thought of as blowback from the situation in Syria and the mass movement of refugees, along with those from other countries who were caught up in that migrant hysteria. The UK papers were blaming the Syrian refugees on "evil Putin" but we all know who's funding and arming the rebellion in that country.
 

Boss Hog

TRIBE Member
It's really because they don't want their most popular take out of curry to change to anything freaky like perogies.
 

Pyrovitae

TRIBE Member
Both sides had compelling reasons. I thought Remain would have won.

Constantly telling someone they are racist and xenophobic for very valid concerns with immigration and economic policies and national sovereignty does not work like it used to, because it is 2016 and computers exist and can communicate with like minded people. It has the opposite effect.
The leave side had no compelling reasons, they appealed to knee jerk reactions and the idea of 'taking back sovereignty' (the UK is already a sovereign nation inside the EU,) and 'taking back control'.

They also outright lied to the British public, saying that with the £350 million (a flagrant lie,) sent to Brussels every week we could put that money towards the National Health Service. Both Johnson and Gove have stated publicly in the past that they want to privatize the NHS so the money was never going there and the figure is grossly exaggerated and doesn't account for refunds and subsidies sent back. When Farage was asked about it yesterday he said that the number was a 'mistake'.

The 'taking back control' largely refers to our borders and I believe this was a mostly xenophobic decision. There is already a skills based, points system from outside the UK (which I don't think a lot of the electorate is aware of,) and if we want to trade with the EU, like Norway, we need to accept certain conditions like the free movement of people. Those who voted out in the attempt to 'take our borders back' are very misinformed.

From a rational perspective, the best thing to have done is to vote remain. Yet the leave campaign said that the remainers were spreading 'project fear' for the very real consequences this nation would suffer and were about 'hope'. What has become very clear is that this is a very divided Britain and a lot of the electorate felt disenfranchised from politics. Bojo and Farage appealed to them on a level Cameron didn't.

I am so very disappointed in my adopted country.
 

Pyrovitae

TRIBE Member
.
3. Scotland is absolutely leaving. I'm not sure if they will wait until Section 50 is invoked or after, but Sturgeon has already said another referendum is coming, and has rightly justified doing so. I was vehemently against Scotland leaving during the first referendum. I would support them leaving now.
It will be interesting to see what happens with Scotland. The oil has largely run out and oil prices have collapsed, making it difficult economically for Scotland to declare independence. Yet I also suspect that their entry into the EU will be vetoed by Spain which is worried that the fragmentation of the UK will set a precedence for regions such as Catalonia.

Anyway, whatever happens, it's the beginning of the end of the UK as we know it.

Really fucking depressing.
 

Jeffsus

TRIBE Member

The lyrics of the European Union's anthem now become ironic.

"Your magic binds what stern custom has separated."
"And whoever was unable, let him steal away from this band."

Adds to the irony of such world anthems as East Germany and the Soviet Union, both of which speak about freedom....

On a related note, a coworker of mine who recently transferred to the UK was able to vote in the referendum merely because he had a working visa there. I would have thought one needs citizenship or permanent residence status to vote....

-jM
A&D
 

Jeffsus

TRIBE Member
Jeffsus, is your coworker Canadian? Commonwealth citizens resident in the UK are able to vote in UK elections.
Yes he is Canadian, and that is surprising.

Are commonwealth residents in Canada allowed to vote in our elections?

I know Boss Hog will have something to say on this topic...

-jM
A&D
 

Polymorph

TRIBE Member
3. Scotland is absolutely leaving. I'm not sure if they will wait until Section 50 is invoked or after, but Sturgeon has already said another referendum is coming, and has rightly justified doing so. I was vehemently against Scotland leaving during the first referendum. I would support them leaving now.

I'm not sure what Northern Ireland will do. I suspect separation and reunification. Even the larger unionist parties supported remain, and Sinn Fein has already called for a referendum.


5. Europe will take semi-punitive measures in response. They have to. A painless brexit would ensure other referendums will follow. They will ensure it will not be painless.

6. British ministers and comissioners will be removed from their committee competencies (since it would be a conflict of interest to have a brit negotiating brexit from the EU side). Already happening. We will be removed from the single market as soon as legally tenable, and only allowed back in if we essentially accept all the powers we currently give to the EU basically remaining with them.

7. Banks and other mobile businesses will seriously consider re-headquartering. Frankfurt and Paris will provide massive incentives for them to do so.

8. Nobody will accept that their vote caused any of this. Once the economic suffering begins, they will find a scapegoat. It will be grim.
This is word for word exactly was I was saying yesterday
 

Jeffsus

TRIBE Member
Does nobody else wonder why the anthem of the European Union is German? Shouldn't it be multilingual or something?

I get it that the 9th symphony was written in German but it's been translated since....

-jM
A&D
 

The Truth

TRIBE Member
A British citizen who was hoping to visit Berlin’s most exclusive nightclub, Berghain, this weekend has had his plans dashed after being refused entry to Germany at Berlin airport.

Wes Feilding traveled to Berlin early this morning with a group of friends and was planning on making it third time lucky with Berghain, having been refused entry on two previous occasions.

“I can’t believe it, I wasn’t sure about getting into the club but I never thought I’d get refused entry to the country,” claimed Wes while sitting in the departures lounge in Berlin airport waiting on the next flight back to London. “I thought Brexit was about keeping people out of Britain, not keeping Brits out of other countries, we’re not immigrants, we’re tourists or expats so surely the laws should work differently for us.”

“I came with a group including a couple of Irish lads, a French girl and about four Spaniards,” he continued sullenly. “The rest of them all got through without any hassle but as soon as the customs officer seen my British passport he just started to laugh, said ‘I don’t think so Tommy’ and threw my passport back at me. Now I’m left here all alone, without any friends and wondering if this whole Brexit thing was a bad idea.”

According to Berlin sources, Berghain’s security staff have announced that they will be “significantly relaxing their policies” after Britain’s decision to leave the European Union.

“The whole point of the ultra strict door policy was to keep the British out,” explained security chief Sven Marquardt. “We’re still a bit bitter about the whole war thing. The problem was that we could never tell who was British and who wasn’t, you English speakers all sound exactly the same to us, but now that they won’t be getting into the country as easily any more we won’t have to turn so many people away.”

“Never Mind Berghain, I Couldn’t Even Get Into Berlin†Claims Brit – Wundergroundmusic.com
 
I can't imagine Scotland staying after this, from their point of view, it comes off as hypocritical and insincere after Cameron's efforts to try to keep them - and that's probably from just the layman's point of view.
 
Top