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At what oil price does mining the tar sands become uneconomical?

alexd

Administrator
Staff member
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VISIT SUNNY ALBERTA!!!

I was wondering this the other day... Now that the price per barrel is dropping like a giant tar coated albatross; will it reach a point where it becomes completely uneconomical to mine tar sands?

Anyone know what that price per barrel tipping point is?
 
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I_bRAD

TRIBE Member
I've heard $50, but nothing a few desperate government subsidies can't fix.
Then they can go bankrupt and we can clean it up. Its only fair.
 

DJ elektron-

TRIBE Member
Hows $Rob Ford doing these days? Still a bumbling buffoon?

Naheed Nenshi is on the short list for World Mayor of the Year.
World Mayor: Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi
"Folk Hero"!!!

growcalgary
Largest Urban Agricultural Farm in Canada, run by volunteers and all food donated to the food bank.

How many homeless people have frozen to death in Toronto now???
MAYBE CALL IN THE ARMY GUYS!!
 
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Psyrel

TRIBE Member
The Carbon Tracker Initiative says $95/barrel in order for the Tar Sands to be profitable.

"Ninety percent of future oil sands projects at risk from eroding oil price. Investors in Canadian oil sands are at a hightened risk of wasting $271 billion of funding on projects in the next decade that need high oil prices of more than $95 a barrel to be profitable, the Carbon Tracker Initiative (CTI) revealed today, flagging faltering oil prices."

Here's their full report
 

erika

TRIBE Member
Right about now. That's why several projects have shut down, and the Alberta premier is even considering <gasp> a sales tax!
 

Boss Hog

TRIBE Member
This looks good on Harper in an election year. That's why you don't put all of your economic eggs into one basket, while subsidizing it and shutting down any criticism that arises.

I hope oil stays low long enough to see him lose.
 

Sleepy Giant

TRIBE Member
The Carbon Tracker Initiative says $95/barrel in order for the Tar Sands to be profitable.

If some needs to explain to you how horribly biased this report is, you have no clue and shouldn't be posting in a thread like this.

Marginal cost is somewhere in the $35~$40 range depending on age and technology. This excludes any startup/development costs. Those only bear into go/no go decisions at project inception.
 
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erika

TRIBE Member
This looks good on Harper in an election year. That's why you don't put all of your economic eggs into one basket, while subsidizing it and shutting down any criticism that arises.

I hope oil stays low long enough to see him lose.

+ deux
 

Polymorph

TRIBE Member
This looks good on Harper in an election year. That's why you don't put all of your economic eggs into one basket, while subsidizing it and shutting down any criticism that arises.

...speaking of eggs, John Baird got nailed in Palestine. Made international news. WHOOT!

Anything to diminish those Cons in the eyes of *ordinary Canadians* who're actually thinking of voting for them again.

(Seriously, that's what's scary. Harper &co. are still polling strong. WTF!)
 

Polymorph

TRIBE Member
For the record, I read an excellent article a few weeks back on this exact topic. (Don't remember the source though)

Basically, 50$/barrel is the break-even viability for the oil sands.

What the Saudis are deliberately doing is keeping oil-prices low in order to destroy the shale gas industry in North America.

Shale-gas, aka Fracking, is only viable with higher oil prices, at least 80$/barrel. That's because these are short term *get in there get out* entrepreneurial companies, with expensive startups. They're the ones whom are freaking out right now.

The Alberta Oil Sands, on the other hand, has always been a more long term investment plan. The startup infrastructure/machinery has long been in place. So, all they need to do over there is *wait it out*, hence some immediate/temporary layoffs... scaling back. But they're still in business. They're just scaling back their production/output for the interim.

Which sucks, because they are ultimately destroying the World.
 

Boss Hog

TRIBE Member
...speaking of eggs, John Baird got nailed in Palestine. Made international news. WHOOT!

Anything to diminish those Cons in the eyes of *ordinary Canadians* who're actually thinking of voting for them again.

(Seriously, that's what's scary. Harper &co. are still polling strong. WTF!)

It's because of the mushroomed population at the top with the baby boomers. They have strength merely in numbers and that they all vote. If young people are serious about getting Harper out, they'll really have to get out to vote this time.

And of course, forget about the green party.
 
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djfear

TRIBE Member
I have a friend who works at Fort Mac and he was already telling me a month ago that his company's contract might not be renewed (so he would be laid off). Sucks for him and I hope he still has a job, but yeah they'll probably slow things down for a bit and then there will be a hiring bonanza once it picks up.
 
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Polymorph

TRIBE Member
It's because of the mushroomed population at the top with the baby boomers. They have strength merely in numbers and that they all vote. If young people are serious about getting Harper out, they'll really have to get out to vote this time.

Really? Are the Baby Boomers really that ignorant/ Stuck in Their Ways... that they'll continue to prioritize illusory *economic stability* (put in place by Paul Martin, btw), over more innovative policies involving *clean energy* and other social policies (does the Harper gov't even have that?) ???

I mean for fucks sake they'll be Dead soon. It's their Kids that have to live with the mess (if not catastrophe), that they've been supporting.

Shit like this makes me embarrassed to be Canadian. That's the True *Harper Effect*.

Sweden, Norway, California.. you be a lookin' mighty good right now.
 
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