Random thoughts/bits of info:
1. Neither Ford nor Miller polled above 10% until September in their election years, so don't discount someone like Soknacki yet.
2. If young people bother, they may vote for Morgan Baskin just because.
3. Chow is running a pretty good campaign. Tory will appeal to those who go all "oooh NDP spectre! scary!"
4. Stintz just keeps getting worse, though she speaks well at debates. She tries to hard to be cutesy AND appeal to Ford voters. Not to mention referencing her record when she changed her position a zillion times.
5. In a recent phone poll, people were asked about various potential candidates including DOUG Ford (who didn't poll well I'm happy to report).
6. The mayor is just one vote on council. We got into this state in part because of all the toadies who supported/enabled him along the way.
So it's anybody's game at this stage. If you are interested at all, don't just sit there and wait for election day to cast your vote: volunteer, not nessarily for a mayoral candidate, but for a councillor candidate. If the councillor in your ward was one of those toadies, offer some time/$$ to someone running against them.