Interesting... some people can predict chaotic sequences...

Discussion in 'TRIBE Main Forum' started by PosTMOd, Mar 7, 2002.

  1. PosTMOd

    PosTMOd Well-Known Member

    Apparently some people can predict stuff very well... as long as it's not completely random... I've actually put this to work (sort of, not really chaos, but whatever, it's prediction), doing weird things like drilling ports into my subwoofer, and then afterwards calculating what size they should be-- two ports, exactly the right size...

    Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences
    6 (1): 37-54, January 2002

    Can People Predict Chaotic Sequences?

    Richard A. Heath
    University of Newcastle, NSW 2308 Australia;


    Previous studies suggesting that people predict chaotic sequences better than chance have not discriminated between sensitivity to nonlinear determinism and facilitation using autocorrelation. Since prediction accuracy declines with increases in the look-ahead window in both cases, a decline in prediction accuracy does not imply chaos sensitivity. To overcome this problem, phase-randomized surrogate time series are used as a control. Such series have the same linear properties as the original chaotic sequence but contain no nonlinear determinism, i.e. chaos. In the experimental task, using a chaotic Hénon attractor, participants viewed the previous eight days temperatures and then predicted temperatures for the next four days, over 120 trials. The control group experienced a sample from a corresponding phase-randomized surrogate series. Both time series were linearly transformed to provide a realistic temperature range. A transformation of the correlation between observed and predicted values decreased over days for the chaotic time series, but remained constant and high for the surrogate series. The interaction between the days and series factors was statistically significant, suggesting that people are sensitive to chaos, even when the autocorrelation functions and power spectra of the control and experimental series are identical. Implications for the psychological assessment of individual differences in human prediction are discussed.
  2. air-bag

    air-bag TRIBE Member

    waht doees that mean?
  3. PosTMOd

    PosTMOd Well-Known Member

    Re: Re: Interesting... some people can predict chaotic sequences...

    I don't know.

    I suppose you fall into some strange pit of tautology with the term, since it's random if you can't predict it, and you can't predict it if it's random.
  4. tommysmalls

    tommysmalls TRIBE Member


    chaos - A dynamical system that has a sensitive dependence on its initial conditions.

    random - Of or relating to a type of circumstance or event that is described by a probability distribution. Of or relating to an event in which all outcomes are equally likely, as in the testing of a blood sample for the presence of a substance
  5. AdRiaN

    AdRiaN TRIBE Member

    In that case ...

    So maybe it's actually possible for economists to be right, in some cases?! :)

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