Max Keiser: Dollar to be buried way before 2018

[Hispeeddub]

[atbell]

^^^

Excelent Russia Today find!

There's a lot to back this type of thing up with. I think some of the 2006 / 07 discussions here had similar speculations.

I'll watch this soon...

[Teflon]

**snicker**

[atbell]

Whoa, that 'activist' makes me look calm, rational, and optimistic


He made some good points but they were lost in his rather naked US bashing. 2018 is not an unreasonable time line for currency changes to take place. He's also right about the fact that both Russia and China are actively trying to shift the dominance of the US$ as a defacto reserve currency as evidenced by both the Putin and Hu Jintao (I think it was him) speaches that opened the Davos forum this year (Jan or Feb I think).

Not so sure about his claim that a new benchmark would include 50% weighting in gold though...

[judge wopner]

Originally Posted by atbell

Whoa, that 'activist' makes me look calm, rational, and optimistic


He made some good points but they were lost in his rather naked US bashing. 2018 is not an unreasonable time line for currency changes to take place. He's also right about the fact that both Russia and China are actively trying to shift the dominance of the US$ as a defacto reserve currency as evidenced by both the Putin and Hu Jintao (I think it was him) speaches that opened the Davos forum this year (Jan or Feb I think).

Not so sure about his claim that a new benchmark would include 50% weighting in gold though...

1. just because someone says they want to get rid of a super power doesnt mean they actually can or want to.

2. russia is a decade or so out from defaulting on their currency. their economy is faltering, for them to suggest a concern or shift away from dollars is like a man with no legs getting upset about a pimple.

3. china has been the a huge buyer of US debt for years now, the idea that they have suddenly become wary of it masks the reality that chinese money supply growth is at an all time high, they are covertly bailing out chinese banks and dont let their own currency float, anchoring it in large part to the dollar. why not let the yaun float at a faster pace?

do any of these actions sound like a nation who actually is concerned about the US currency or nations that as they have for decades love stirring the geo-political plot?

4. there isnt enough gold on the planet to comprise %50 of any world currency unless gold is revauled upwards several time higher than it is now. if youre a follower of Martin armstrong then you might envision $5000 gold. if that were the case, our currencies would be peanuts at that point and we'd have all sorts of other problems.

5. the media talka bout the death of the dollar seems to be easily digested by a populace that forgets how wrong the media was prior to last years market collapse...

[atbell]

Originally Posted by judge wopner

1. just because someone says they want to get rid of a super power doesnt mean they actually can or want to.

China can. There is no question about that. And what's more China can take down the US faster and cheaper than the US could do anything. All that the Chinese need to do is say 'we are selling all of our US$ holdings' and the United States of America will fall apart.

I do not feel that I have read anything about policy, public releases, speaches, military actions, economic choices, or anything that makes me think that the Chinese want to do this. The fellow in the video seems to have the oposite view as I do on this point and he holds it so strongly I get the feeling he's got some serrious issues about the US himself.

What I have been able to deduce is that there is a credible movement away from the US$ from a collection of different countries. It will not happen 'quickly' if it can be helped and a time line of 2018 is actually longer than I would have given to make the changes in a reasonable amount of time. None of these countries are particularily hostile to the US although they are not all friendly. I don't think there are many rational people who want to see the US 'gotten rid of' but many would like to see the influence significantly diminished.

2. russia is a decade or so out from defaulting on their currency. their economy is faltering, for them to suggest a concern or shift away from dollars is like a man with no legs getting upset about a pimple.

The russians are smarter, more patient, and in better shape than anglos give them credit for. The internal problems of crime and power struggles are holding the country back as well as the continued anti-russian bias in english media which hurts thier credibility. They have the resources and the man power to have a significant influence over the world even if the European oil pipe lines are the only things that are considered.

The Russians are also one of the few countries that has seen the decline of the dollar comming well in advance. Just before the crisis escalated with the collapse of the US mortage banks I finished a quick study of Russian currency reserve changes. I found that they had sold US$ on a consistent schedule at consistant relative values over a number of years. They began with a reserve distribution of 70% US$ and were down as low as 40% by the end of last August. They were clearly moving as fast as they could without causeing enough of a stir to cause a panic.

3. china has been the a huge buyer of US debt for years now, the idea that they have suddenly become wary of it masks the reality that chinese money supply growth is at an all time high, they are covertly bailing out chinese banks and dont let their own currency float, anchoring it in large part to the dollar. why not let the yaun float at a faster pace?

Printing money is how a country pegs its currency. The Chinese need to print to keep the peg stable. Floating the yaun is definately something that needs attention. I have yet to read any solid arguments on either side nor have I thought to much about it.

One cautionary note is that there is a very real posibility that the Chinese currency is supporting the US$. To get a better idea of what could happen I suggest looking at the case of Argentina in 2001 / 2002. Here is a link to the report by the Independant Evaluation Office (no idea how independant they are though) of the IMF. It is a good starter for currency issues:

http://www.ieo-imf.org/eval/complete/eval_07292004.html

4. there isnt enough gold on the planet to comprise %50 of any world currency unless gold is revauled upwards several time higher than it is now. if youre a follower of Martin armstrong then you might envision $5000 gold. if that were the case, our currencies would be peanuts at that point and we'd have all sorts of other problems.

Is it possible that our currencies are peanuts? Look how much debt we have. Do you really think it's going to get paid off? Isn't a perpetually growing debt pretty much the same as a ponzi scheme?

PS. the people who get out of a ponzi scheme before it collapses win....

Yeah, the gold standard issue is another one that I'm not certain about. There seems to be a growing noise about it again but that doesn't mean it will happen. Bernanke's evaluation of the great depression suggests that he is unlikely to move toward a gold standard any time soon. One of Greenspan's closing remarks in his time at the fed was to suggest that currencies tied to a basket of comodities might be worth considering, as in studying type of thing.

5. the media talka bout the death of the dollar seems to be easily digested by a populace that forgets how wrong the media was prior to last years market collapse...

Not wrong as much as late.

As far as I'm concerned this should have been brought up years ago. Even this forum was on top of currency issues two or three years ago.

When all is said and done I think the most important question of all is to ask if the 'crisis' is a currency crisis.



I think it is.


The time line has been about correct and the conditions are quite similar to those seen in Latin America. A look at the Asian crisis of 97, the problems in Russia over the past two decades, the crisis in Sandinavia in the 90s, and the stagnation of Japan in the past decades would provide what is needed to know what's going on as well as what needs to be done.